Honda Classic: PGA Tour betting preview & Predictions

The PGA Tour has been filled with excitement in the early goings. John Rahm will be taking a well-deserved rest after winning at The Genesis Invitational last week and having finished no lower than 7th in 6 starts this year. The question now becomes who will step up and take advantage of the lighter field at the PGA National in this years’ Honda Classic.

Honda Classic: Field overview

Sungjae Im	+850
Shane Lowry	+1500
Matt Kuchar	+2200
Chris Kirk	+2400
Billy Horschel	+2400
Min Woo Lee	+2500
Aaron Wise	+2500
Denny McCarthy	+2800
Adam Svensson	+3300
Thomas Detry	+3400

With many of the top golfers following in the footsteps of John Rahm, the field has been opened up for someone to really assert their authority on tour. Sungjae Im is the favorite going into the event and understandably so. Outside of a 56th-place finish last week, Im has 5 top-20 finishes this season. He also won this event back in 2020 and came 8th here in 2021.

PGA National places an emphasis on approach play and that’s where Shane Lowry shines. He’s gaining 0.48 strokes on approach over his last 36 rounds and after a bumpy start to the year, rallied to a 14th-place finish at the Genesis Invitational. With a weaker field, Lowry at +1500 should be a very strong play, but this feels like a week for the wildcards.

Speaking of which, PGA National is one of the few courses that could hold a ‘homefield advantage’. Based in Florida, many of the golfers in this field live within driving distance which not only reduces travel fatigue but obviously brings an element of comfort and familiarity. From Denny McCarthy to Shane Lowry, there is an abundance of golfers living near Jupiter Florida due to being a hotbed of stunning golf courses.

Where to find value in the Honda Classic

Sepp Straka

To win: +5000
Top-5: +1100
Top-10: +500

Straka won this event last year and is yet to miss a cut in 2023. In fact, he has three top-35 finishes at this event in a row and with the field a little lighter, he should continue to feature in the heart of Sunday’s action as a strong approach player who is hitting 70% GIR this season.

Ben Griffin

To win: +5000
Top-5: +1100
Top-10: +500

Griffin’s hot start to the year somewhat cooled off last week, but this is a great rebound spot. He is gaining 0.52 shots on approach this year and ranks 3rd of all PGA Tour starters this year in strokes-gained tee-to-green. This could be a great spot to buy the dip on the American.

Chris Kirk

To win: +3500
Top-5: +700
Top-10: +330

Chris Kirk came 7th here last year and has a pair of top-5 finishes this year already. He’s been very well-rounded up to this point and has finished inside the top-35 in 3 of his last 5 starts at the PGA National. Interestingly he is among the most expensive DFS options, but 35/1 in the betting markets. There is definitely some value on an outright bet.

Betting prediction for The Honda Classic

It’s hard to look past Shane Lowry this week. There is some value on an ascending player who is usually a mid/high-tier player and is now competing in a weaker field at a course that favors his skillset.