Tour Championship 2022: Top-5 picks ahead of PGA Tour finale

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BMW Championship Golf
Adam Scott, of Australia, hits toward the 18th green during the final round of the BMW Championship golf tournament at Wilmington Country Club, Sunday, Aug. 21, 2022, in Wilmington, Del. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

The 2022 Tour Championship is here. A staggered starting grid and a reduced field makes building a custom model here a little redundant. However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities for bettors to make some money.

Don’t forget you can get a risk-free $1,000 bet on any of these picks by clicking the BetMGM graphic below!

Here’s how the golfers will stack up on Thursday (Per Washington Post)

Tour Championship staggered standings
Scottie Scheffler-10
Patrick Cantlay-8
Will Zalatoris (WD)-7
Xander Schauffele-6
Sam Burns-5
Cameron Smith, Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, Sepp Straka, Sungjae Im-4
Jon Rahm, Scott Stallings, Justin Thomas, Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick-3
Max Homa, Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, Joaquin Niemann, Viktor Hovland-2
Collin Morikawa, Billy Horschel, Tom Hoge, Corey Conners, Brian Harman-1
K.H. Lee, J.T. Poston, Sahith Theegala, Adam Scott, Aaron WiseE

Tour Championship betting picks

Tony Finau +1800

Rory McIlroy and Tony Finau both start on -4. Finau has won 2 of his last 4 and had a top-5 two weeks ago. Rory has a missed cut and a top-10 in his last two tournaments. Because he’s the bigger name and has won this event in the past, McIlroy is +900. You can get double the odds on Finau and they start at the exact same score. That screams value to me.

There is some concern that Finau randomly imploded during a round last week, but he bounced back so strongly and in a way that only an elite player can. This has been a really strong month or so for ‘Top-10 Tony’ and I have every faith he’ll do well here. In terms of a value play, it doesn’t get much better.

Hideki Matsuyama +13000

I was all-in on Hideki last week and we got a 35th place finish. It wasn’t perfect and I felt like he ran out of puff towards the end, but again, this is a dominant PGA Tour player with eight wins to his name. Starting eight shots back makes winning an almighty task, however, a top-10 finish is priced at +250, which I think is well worth taking a punt on.

Billy Horschel +13000

At the same price as Hideki, Billy Horschel could be a sneaky-good play. He’s had a second place at The Tour Championship in the past and can heat up on any given weekend. However, if anything, his price speaks volumes to the mis-price of Matsuyama given Horschel starts one shot behind. Again, you’re looking for the top-10 market here as opposed to the win, but even that comes at +300. As much as I like this pick, it does just lead me back to Hideki.

Viktor Hovland +7000

Sure, he’s pretty expensive for a guy starting at -2, but Hovland has proved that all he needs is one good round to spring back to life and that’s exactly what he got last Sunday after a disappointing start. Hovland is better from range and when he has those longer irons at his disposal, he’s going to be able to run rings around most in this field. He may not win, but if the consensus is that he’s going to shoot up the standings as Vegas suggests, it’s not the worst spot to play him in.

Photo Credit: AP Photo/Nick Wass