The Genesis Invitational: PGA Tour betting preview & Predictions

PGA tour
PONTE VEDRA BEACH, FL – MARCH 12: Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland hits a drive at the seventh hole during the weather delayed completion of the second round of THE PLAYERS Championship on the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass on March 12, 2022 in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire)

The PGA Tour has delivered some brilliant Golf to start 2023 and a stacked field at the Waste Management Phoenix open gave us all the thrills and spills we expected. But now there’s a Tiger lurking at Riviera Country Club for the Genesis Invitational and things are about to get spicy.

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The Genesis Invitational: Field overview

John Rahm+750
Rory McIlroy+900
Scottie Scheffler+1000
Xander Schauffele+1600
Tony Finau+1650
Justin Thomas+1650
Max Homa+2000
Colin Morikawa+2000
Patrick Cantlay+2200
Viktor Hovland+2500

What’s interesting here is that the top-5 players in this tournament are in the exact same order going into the event as they were for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Scheffler won last time out while Rahm came 3rd and Rory just outside the top 30. The fact that the odds haven’t moved at all in spite of this is worth noting.

Riviera Country Club demands accuracy off the tee and that may well favor a player like Morikawa, who is hitting 75% of fairways in regulation this year so far, the highest mark of anyone not named Russell Henley. Morikawa also came 2nd here last year and outside of a missed cut last week, has not finished outside of the top-10 in 2023. There’s also a need for accuracy on approach and Morikawa is among the best in the field in this metric.

Speaking of accurate ball-strikers, this week sees Will Zalatoris return to the field. While he is a little more sporadic off the tee, he’s gaining 1.36 strokes tee-to-green and has two back-to-back top 30’s here. At +4000, he’s certainly an interesting play.

Tiger Woods comes into this event at +13000 and recently gave a presser stating that he’s here to win. It’s been a while since we’ve seen the GOAT in action, with his last official PGA Tour event being The Open in 2022 at St. Andrews where he missed the cut. The 47-year-old appears to have recovered well from his leg injuries, but only mustered 9 rounds of competitive golf in 2022. It’s largely likely that he views this as an opportunity to shake the rust off and begin preparing the Major season, but you can never truly count him out.

Where to find value in the Genesis Invitational

James Hahn

To win: +30000
Top-5: +5000
Top-10: +1800

My bet on James Hahn to finish inside the top-20 last week narrowly missed, with Hahn finishing 32nd position. He’s had 3 top-20’s in his last four runs here and has been one of the better approach players on tour up to this point. He’s definitely a longshot, but a top-10/ top-20 bet could well be worth the punt.

Russell Henley

To win: +8000
Top-5: +1600
Top-10: +650

Russell Henley’s accuracy off the tee will be absolutely pivotal here and his 75% GIR rate is beyond impressive. As a mid-tier play, Henley is a great one. He’s made the cut on four consecutive occasions and had two top-35’s prior to last week’s missed cut. This course better fits his surgical skill set and I’d expect him to be a factor.

Adam Scott

To win: +5500
Top-5: +1000
Top-10: +450

Adam Scott won this event a few years ago and is always in the mix on Sunday. Three top-10’s in his last 5 runs here speak volumes for the veteran, who also has two top-30’s to his name this season. He’s in form, plays well here, and should be a valuable betting play.

Betting prediction for The Genesis Invitational

It’s hard to look past Colin Morikawa this week. At a course where the betting odds haven’t changed and there is so little to separate the top-5, snag the value on an outsider who is among the best ball-strikers in the field.

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The Genesis Invitational betting offers

Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire