2022 Tour Championship: Betting preview & predictions

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MEMPHIS, TN – AUGUST 07: Will Zalatoris hits a shot during the third round of the World Golf Championships-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, August 7, 2021 at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee. (Photo by Matthew Maxey/Icon Sportswire)

The 2022 Tour Championship is upon us. It’s been a long and winding road up to this point with every thrill and spill imaginable along the way. With just one event left to play in the 2022 PGA Tour season, there is bound to be even more drama and opportunities for bettors to make some money.

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The Tour Championship format

While its format is controversial, the Tour Championship is a very different event compared to the rest of the calendar. The leader in the FedEx Cup rankings starts the weekend -10, while second place starts at -8, third at -7 etc, all the way down to the last five golfers in the standings who will start even par. This is the fourth year the tournament has been staggered like this, with the winner taking both the Tour Championship and the FedEx Cup.

Here’s how the golfers will stack up on Thursday (Per Washington Post)

Scottie Scheffler-10
Patrick Cantlay-8
Will Zalatoris-7
Xander Schauffele-6
Sam Burns-5
Cameron Smith, Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, Sepp Straka, Sungjae Im-4
Jon Rahm, Scott Stallings, Justin Thomas, Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick-3
Max Homa, Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, Joaquin Niemann, Viktor Hovland-2
Collin Morikawa, Billy Horschel, Tom Hoge, Corey Conners, Brian Harman-1
K.H. Lee, J.T. Poston, Sahith Theegala, Adam Scott, Aaron WiseE

The Course

East Lake can be a cruel mistress. Accuracy off the tee is desired here on this Donald Ross special, while punishing rough and greens with plenty of undulation will demand some creative approach play. However, narrow fairways and a lack of variety in terms of hole layout can make this course pretty simplistic for the better ball-strikers in the field. This is not a course where golfers will shoot consistent 64’s and 65’s. However, it is one where the leaders will play smartly and safely to hang on to their pre-tournament lead.

The favorites

Understandably, the man at the top of the odds sheet this week is Scottie Scheffler at +240. He only has a two-stroke lead over Patrick Cantlay at +330, who just so happened to win last week’s BMW Championship. But then he has a 3 stroke lead over Will Zalatoris who comes in at +1000 and so on and so forth.

Because of the setup here, it is really tough to try and bet anyone other than Scheffler, who is all but guaranteed to finish inside the top 5/10 providing he doesn’t implode, which isn’t really something in his vocabulary. The odds are incredibly short, but backing one of the top-3 might be the way forward here given that someone like Rory McIlroy (+1100) starts his weekend 6 shots back.

Betting options for the Tour Championship

That doesn’t mean that there isn’t money to be made, however. I think you can absolutely look further down the field at a guy like Joaquin Niemann and bet him to finish inside the top-10 (+200). Technically he starts 2 shots outside of the top-10. This is where the real value for this week is going to come from. Finding guys who have been trending in the right direction and are able to push up into the next tier of golfer over the course of a four-day event.

You could absolutely make the case of any of the guys in that -2 range to push on into the top-10. Jordan Spieth (+165), Viktor Hovland (+200), Max Homa (+190), and even Hideki Matsuyama (+275) all have the ability to gain more than two strokes on the players ahead, and that’s all they’d need to do.

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Photo by Matthew Maxey/Icon Sportswire