Phillies v. Astros World Series Betting Preview – Game 1

The Philadelphia Phillies head to Houston Friday night for a game that will kick off their first World Series appearance since 2009.

As heavy underdogs to the winningest team in the American League, the Phils have made their way through the 2022 playoffs with a record of 9-2.

Despite all those wins, they still seem to have the Wildcard stink on them, and needless to say, a lot to prove.

For those of you that can watch baseball for the love of the game, god bless you, but even in the World Series, I need a little juice. Keep reading if you like juice too.

I’ll tell you this: if there’s one parlay I can guarantee for Friday night, it’s this one:

That’s $10 to win $550. What a steal – go, Phils.

What: MLB World Series, Game 3 – Philadelphia Phillies @ Houston Astros

Where: Minute Maid Park, Friday, October 28th @ 8:03p

Phillies v. Astros: Game 1 – Pitching matchup

Aaron Nola (Regular Season: 11-13, 3.25 ERA & Postseason: 2-1, 3.12 ERA) v. Justin Verlander (Regular Season: 18-4, 1.75 ERA & Postseason: 1-0, 6.30 ERA)

Phillies

Not unlike the Phillies as a whole, the homegrown Aaron Nola needs to affirm his role as a postseason hero.

After his first two playoff starts netted him a 2-0 record without an earned run, his most recent performance against San Diego went off the rails with six total earned runs and the Phillies’ only loss of the NLCS.

Although Nola’s faced the Astros twice in his career, once in 2017 and again this season, he’s averaged 9.5 strikeouts per start and hasn’t allowed a run. In predicting a bounceback for Nola, you can get him at 7+ strikeouts for +182 or $10 to win $18.20.

Astros

The Phillies don’t have much of a history against Justin Verlander, despite his 17-year career. Of the twelve Phils that have faced Verlander at some point, only Bryce Harper, Jean Segura, and Nick Castellanos have even recorded a hit.

Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins have yet to face Verlander.

Across 46 total plate appearances from the current Philadelphia lineup, a .167 cumulative batting average leaves something to be desired. History tells us that Verlander strikes these Phillies out at a 39% clip, according to StatHead.com.

Segura leads the way with fourteen at-bats and a .857 OPS, including a homer and double, but ultimately, for Game 1, I think you’d be wise to prepare for a lot of K’s.

Best Books and Better Bets

I’ll keep this simple. I don’t like the runs total – o/u 6.5 feels trappy (even indoors).

Phillies’ covering +1.5 runs isn’t terrible, but the odds are (-160), so we’re going to run with the good old fashion Moneyline at +140. That could net you a sweet little payout if you ride with the dogs.

Props and Parlays

Conventional wisdom would tell you we’re gearing up for a pitching duel so let’s not overthink it. When I say this is a long shot, you’ll see how much needs to go right for this to hit.

But this is the World Series, not a weekend against the Miami Marlins – all we do is shoot for the stars.

For $10, that’s a payout of $214.26 on FanDuel. Crazier things have happened, like the Phillies making it here in the first place.

Bonus Bet Tracker

It’s nice that I got the Phillies to win the World Series at 30-to-1, but the books still don’t believe in this team.

On FanDuel, you can get the Good Guys at +165, or $10, to win $16.50, so there isn’t a ton of value, but I tell you this: I’m not cashing out anytime soon.

Photo Credit: AP Photo/Matt Rourke