The 2024 NASCAR season will be given the green flag on Monday Night. The Daytona 500 is a staple in the Motorsport world and often throws up some surprise winners. If you’re looking to back an underdog to win the Great American Race, we’ve found 5 names you should add to your betslip.
Daytona 500: Why betting on longshots is the best strategy
Betting on favorites in most sporting events is often a smart strategy. But with wrecks almost a guarantee and the magical nature of speedway racing, the Daytona 500 presents a unique opportunity to cash some huge bets.
From the unthinkable Trevor Bayne win at +8000, to Austin Dillon’s +5000 win in 2018, and even Michael McDowell’s +10000 win as recently as 2021, the Daytona 500 is a hotbed for surprise winners and some huge betting returns.
Where to find value in the Daytona 500
With over 40 drivers racing around the iconic Daytona speedway, the Great American Race is a hard one to predict, but there are certain things to keep an eye on.
Prior to Alex Bowman’s 6th place finish last year, the pole-sitter hadn’t finished inside the top 15 in 6 consecutive Daytona 500’s.
With all of this in mind, it’s absolutely a good idea to go bargain-bin hunting to try and find some value.
Josh Berry
To win: +6500
Top-5: +1800
Top-10: +800
Sure, Josh Berry might be a rookie, but we’ve seen rookies triumph at Daytona 500 before – 23 times in fact.
Berry will be driving Kevin Harvick’s old car, which in itself speaks volumes. The SHR machinery should have the chops to be successful here. His teammates start 20th, 25th, and 40th, meaning he does have support in the midfield.
Although Berry will line up in 32nd, the 23-year-old will likely be encouraged to hang back and keep out of trouble until the end. If anything, you want a driver right at the top or right at the bottom, and Berry should be hitting the speedway with a conservative approach.
This defines a lotto play, but if you want a wildcard, Josh Berry to finish inside the top-10 has a pretty nice line.
Noah Gragson
To win: +6500
Top-5: +1800
Top-10: +800
If you want some real deep value, look no further than Noah Gragson. He’s at an identical price to Berry, but is the more accomplished driver, and will start right at the back of the field, 8 spots behind his rookie teammate.
2023 was a tricky year for the 25-year-old on and off the track, but if Gragson can learn from his well-accomplished teammates and avoid silly mistakes, there’s no reason he cant turn a few heads in his 2024 debut.
Kyle Busch
To win: +1000
Top-5: +285
Top 10: +125
He’s not a longshot in the typical sense, but starting 34th, it’s going to take a heroic effort for Busch to come out on top here. His odds aren’t as juiced as the rookies above, but his track record should inspire confidence for bettors looking for a safer top-10 prop.
Busch was on course to win the 2023 race before a chaotic ending removed him from contention. It’s the one win really alluding a storied career and Busch has proven time and time again that he has what it takes to win here. He’ll be able to calmly navigate the race from the back and if it does come down to a dash to the finish, expect Busch to be in the mix.
Todd Gilliland
To win: +10000
Top-5: +2500
Top-10: +1100
From one extreme to the other, I love Todd Gilliland here. He’s another driver starting in the lower third of the order, but one who has all the upside in the world. At just 23 years old, Todd finished 32 of 36 races last year, coming 14th in 2023’s Daytona 500. He’s someone who can navigate cautions and adapt to changing circumstances, with a driving style that doesn’t resemble that of a typical hotshot.
All we need our longshots to do is stay out of trouble and Gilliland can do that while presenting the pace needed to finish inside the top-10. I love the price of that top-10 prop, but you can be really adventurous here without much risk.
Austin Dillon
To win: +4000
Top-5: +1100
Top-10: +500
Dillon won the non-500 race at Daytona in 2022, as well as finishing third in the 500 that season. He bettered that in 2018 with a win at the Great American Race. He was taken out in the 2023 running of the event and will likely feed off that from his 33rd spot on the grid. Dillon has the chops to win this race, he’s proven that already. It’s a low-risk, high-reward play.
AP Photo/Terry Renna
