Waste Management Phoenix Open: PGA Tour betting preview & Predictions

PGA tour
PONTE VEDRA BEACH, FL – MARCH 12: Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland hits a drive at the seventh hole during the weather delayed completion of the second round of THE PLAYERS Championship on the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass on March 12, 2022 in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire)

The PGA Tour has delivered some brilliant Golf to start 2023 but things are about to hit a whole new level. The Waste Management Phoenix open is one of the signature events on tour, half in part to TPC Scottsdale’s brilliantly challenging design and iconic holes, and the rest down to a soccer-like atmosphere that fills the air. With a $20M purse, this is a 132-man field brimming with some of the best names in the game today.

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The Waste Management Phoenix open: Field overview

John Rahm+700
Rory McIlroy+850
Scottie Scheffler+1200
Xander Schauffele+1400
Tony Finau+1600
Colin Morikawa+1600
Patrick Cantlay+1800
Justin Thomas+2200
Max Homa+2500
Sungjae Im+2800

This is by far the most stacked lineup we’ve seen for a PGA Tour event in 2023. Rory McIlroy is joined by Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrell Hatton as Brits making the jump from the DP World Tour to dip their toes into PGA Tour action for the first time this year, while names like Jordan Spieth and Matt Fitzpatrick don’t even crack the top-10 in odds (for differing reasons). This is an all-star field for an all-star event.

John Rahm is unsurprisingly at the top of the totem pole coming into this one. He’s won two of his last three events and has finished inside the top-15 here in each of his last 5 attempts. Rahm is arguably the most dominant golfer on tour right now and comes into the Waste Management Phoenix Open with a full head of steam.

It will be very interesting to see how Rory McIlroy fares this week. He won the Dubai Desert Classic, narrowly beating Patrick Reed (just to rub salt in the wound) and will look to keep the good form rolling. McIlroy enjoyed an emphatic end to 2022, but he’ll want his first win of 2023 to come much sooner than it did last year.

Another man worth watching will be Matt Fitzpatrick, whose neck injury didn’t seem to hold him back too much last week in the opening round, before he, unfortunately, missed the cut at Pebble Beach. With a week of recovery, he should be in better shape, and his price (+3500) is a bargain given we may never see him being priced this high again.

Where to find value in the Waste Management Phoenix Open

Shane Lowry

To win: +6500
Top-5: +1200
Top-10: +550

This is a course that demands strong approach play and while you could pick any of the top-20 names on the odds sheet, Shane Lowry could be the real value play here. He ranks 14th on approach in this field and comes into the event following a missed cut in Dubai. However he had looked pretty good in the two DP World Tour events prior, has a new caddie, and if you’re looking for a longshot who has the skill set to hang with the big boys, Lowry is your man.

Tom Hoge

To win: +11000
Top-5: +2000
Top-10: +800

If itis approach specialists you want, you’re looking at the #1 player in the field in that metric, gaining 1.39 strokes per round. Hoge has made 3 consecutive cuts to start his 2023 campaign, including a 3rd place finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. He also has two top-25 finishes here in his last 4 attempts, so a top-10 finish at 8/1 is a juicy price.

Xander Schauffele

To win: +1400
Top-5: +300
Top-10: +150

Xander is by no means a wildcard, but he’s my best bet this week. He decimates at TPC Scottsdale, having finished inside the top-20 in each of his last 5 attempts here, with his two most recent being 2nd and 3rd. He’s also had two top-5’s and a 13th place in 2023 already. You’re paying a premium here, but it’s worth every penny.

Betting prediction for The Waste Management Phoenix Open.

I think Rory McIlroy bursts onto the scene in a big way this week, but I would not mind backing Xander Schauffele either. Both of these golfers look set for a huge run at TPC Scottsdale in the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

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Waste Management Phoenix Open offers

Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire