The American Express: PGA Tour betting preview & Predictions

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The PGA Tour is back and after a stunning end to the Sony Open that saw Si Woo Kim take the win, we now head to the American Express and its unique format. The tournament will be played across a trio of different courses in La Quinta. La Quinta’s C.C will be the heart and soul, while the Nicklaus & Dye courses at PGA West will also feature.

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The American Express: Field overview

John Rahm+650
Scottie Scheffler+1000
Patrick Cantlay+1100
Tony Finau+1200
Xander Schauffele+2000
Will Zalatoris+2000
Cam Young+2000
Tom Kim+2200
Sungjae Im+2200
Tom Hoge+3500

The Field features a stacked lineup in comparison to last week’s Sony Open and there should be no surprise that John Rahm comes into this matchup as the odds-on favorite after his win at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. He also won this event back in 2018 and has finished inside the top-20 on both appearances since.

Speaking of former victors at The American Express, Si Woo Kim won this event in 2021 and is coming off of a big win at the Sony Open. He comes in at +4000 and is going to be an appealing bet to many this week.

Tom Hoge finished in 2nd place at The American Express last year and has had an impressive start to 2023. He ranks 2nd on approach in this field over his last 36 rounds and could be poised to make another strong push here.

It’s also hard to look past Tony Finau, who ended 2022 in explosive fashion and kickstarted the new season with a 7th place finish at the Tournament of Champions. He ranks second in strokes gained tee-to-green over his last 36 rounds, while his GIR% leads the field.

The American express
HOUSTON, TX – NOVEMBER 13: Tony Finau (USA) celebrates after winning tournament in the Final Round of the Cadence Bank Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course on November 13, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

Where to find value in the Sony Open

Tony Finau:

To win: +1200
Top-5: +300
Top-10: +150

As mentioned earlier, it’s hard not to love Finau in the spot. His birdie-or-better percentage is exceptional and he’s one of the best approach players in the game who is clearly playing his best golf right now. This could be one of the few occasions we get him above 10/1 this season if he can stay hot and continue to hit as many greens as he’s become known to do.

Brian Harman

To win: +3500
Top-5: +750
Top-10: +350

The Stadium Course ranks 18th in driving accuracy of all the courses on the calendar and if there’s a focus on scoring and hitting greens in regulation, finding guys who can put themselves in favorable spots is key. Harman ranks 9th in driving accuracy and 2nd in GIR% which is huge around here. He’s also had 5 top-35 finishes in a row, including a pair of runner-up finishes. He finished 3rd place at The American Express last year and 8th in the year before that. I like his odds here.

Russell Knox

To win: +30000
Top-5: +4500
Top-10: +1800

If you want to dive into the bargain bucket, you won’t find many names more appealing than Russell Knox. He gains 1.03 shots on approach and is hitting over 70% of greens in regulation. Prior to a missed cut last year, he had made it on 4 continuous occasions and had 4 top-50 finishes in a row to end 2022. A +1800 bet to finish inside the top-10 feels like a strong play.

Betting prediction for The American Express

You can’t go far wrong with one of Sungjae Im, Si Woo Kim, Tom Hoge, or Tony Finau. But if you want value, then Brian Harman has to be the go-to guy. He thrives in all the same metrics but comes with a higher upside than most due to his higher odds. There’s no reason he can’t go all the way at The American Express.

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The American Express betting offers

Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire