The Phillies started September on a terrible note, getting blown out 13-1 last night by the Giants. Being a team that’s notorious for September meltdowns in recent years, this is not the start they wanted.
Granted, they are a different team this year, and the vibes just feel different. Losses happen, but losing two out of three to the Diamondbacks and now this big loss to the Giants just kills the mood. However, looking at the bright side, they’re 73-59, and 51-30 since Rob Thomson took over.
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Now, they look to gain momentum back and go into a classic September playoff run. Game two of the series starts at 4:05pm today.
Phillies Noah Syndergaard (8-9, 3.98 ERA, 82 SO) vs. Giants Jakob Junis (4-4, 4.04 ERA, 71 SO)
The Phillies lost their first game with Noah Syndergaard since he joined the team at the trade deadline. Thor himself is 3-1 with a 4.40 ERA in five starts since putting on red pinstripes.
He did get rocked in his most recent start, which was a 5-0 loss to the Pirates last week. Thor allowed all five of those runs to score on nine hits, and only lasted 5.2 innings. This ended a stretch of great starts by Syndergaard since arriving in Philadelphia.
He’s in a good spot to bounce back, as he has had success against the Giants in his career. He hasn’t faced San Fran in 2022, but has seven starts since joining the league. All of those appearances came while he was a member of the Mets, and he’s earned a 3-2 record with an outstanding 2.79 ERA.
His numbers get even better when looking at starts specifically at Oracle Park as well. In three games there, he’s 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA, an average of 8.0IP, and one complete game. He’s done great in the months of September and October as well, as his second-lowest ERA for a single month is in September (3.07).
On the flip side, Jakob Junis will start for San Fran today. In his first season with San Fran, Junis has done fairly well. His record may not show it, but his 4.04 ERA isn’t terrible in the grand scheme of things, especially after not starting the season off as a starter.
Junis got the start against Philadelphia back on May 31st, where he held the Phils to one run and three hits in 4.1 IP. He actually was the opposing pitcher in the Phillies last loss in the Joe Girardi era, so we can thank him for leaving a bad taste in the mouth of the front office and indirectly assisting in turning the season around.
He has only faced Philadelphia one other time in his career, and that was a start back in 2019 while a member of the Kansas City Royals. The red pinstripes got him that time, dinging him for five runs on three hits in 4.1 IP.
On the season and in his career, Junis has been lethal against right-handed batters, but lefties have gotten the best of him. In 2022, his splits are .216 vs. 281, respectively. When looking at his career, those numbers elevate to .248 vs. .290. Expect the Phillies to go lefty-heavy this afternoon.
Betting Preview and Picks
As mentioned in my previous betting articles, the Phillies are one of the easier schedules down the stretch. The Giants are one of the tougher teams they’ll face down the home stretch, and they’re pretty much out of the playoff race. This being said, they need to rebound today against Junis, especially with Carlos Rodon on the mound tomorrow.
They have one of the hottest lineups in baseball, have scored the sixth-most runs in the entire league (fifth in NL), and have a top-8 team batting average. The team needs to live up to these numbers and get to Junis quickly and force the Giants to use their bullpen even earlier and more often in this series than they are planning for.
Phillies Lineup vs. Cobb
The majority of Phillies routine lineup doesn’t have the biggest sample size of plate appearances against Cobb. However, when looking at the batter vs. pitcher numbers that ESPN provides, they don’t have the best success against the right-hander:
We correctly predicted a parlay of an Alec Bohm hit and the over in yesterday’s contest. If you tailed, you more than doubled your money.
Given Castellanos’ history against Junis, I don’t feel the most confident betting on him to get a hit. However, I love Bryce Harper to pick up a hit today. After going 0-4 yesterday, he’s due to get on base, especially against a pitcher that struggles against lefties. Harper is also looking for his first homerun since June 9th.
You can’t go wrong following our successful trend of taking Harper to get a hit (-250) and a Phillies win (-120). Doing so will double your money again, as playing those two picks together will win a $10 bettor $12.30, and they’d collect $22.30.
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Photo Credit: AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez