The Phillies have been red-hot over the past couple of months, with the exception of a few series. One of those series that halted their momentum happened last weekend against the New York Mets.
Unlike last week, though, the Phillies will not face both Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. It’s more likely they only see one of them in this four-game series, and that’s only because the once three-game series is now four games due to a makeup game from 5/6.
That doesn’t mean that the Phillies won’t have a challenging series against their rival and division leader. Baseball gets kicked off tonight at 7:05 in South Philly.
Phillies Aaron Nola (8-9, 3.07 ERA, 165 SO) vs. Chris Bassitt (10-7, 3.27 ERA, 134 SO)
Aaron Nola takes the mound for Philadelphia today and is coming off three straight starts of only allowing one run while going at least six innings. Most recently, he faced the Mets and let up a single run on four hits in eight insane innings of work.
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That’s pretty par for the course for Nola against the Mets in his career. Since coming to the league, he’s 9-6 in 24 starts against New York, accumulating a 3.09 ERA. However, Nola has failed to pick up a win against the Mets this year, mainly because of a lack of run support. In three starts against NYM this year, Nola has only allowed five total runs on 14 total hits.
On the flip side, Chris Bassitt will get the nod for the Big Apple today. Bassitt has been having a very solid year for the Mets so far. He’s even been better against Philadelphia. In three starts against the Philliest this season, Bassitt has allowed two total runs (1.08 ERA). Most recently, he shut them out in five innings of work.
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The Phillies may have their work cut out for them today if Bassitt continues that trend, but their offense is due for a good game. They have one of the hottest lineups in baseball, have scored the eighth-most runs in the entire league (fifth in NL), and have a top-11 team batting average. Now that they’re facing a pitcher that isn’t Scherzer or deGrom, they need to put some runs on the board.
Phillies Lineup Stats
The majority of the Phillies lineup has faced Bassitt, but with a small sample size. Nick Castellanos, though, has faced him more due to his time with the Tigers. In 22 plate appareances, Casty is hitting .364 with a homer against the right-hander.
Overall, lefties have hit him better, however, with a .251 to .211 split when facing left-handed to right-handed batters, respectively.
I correctly predicted Casty to get a hit in the last few of my betting previews. If you tailed, you doubled your money. Now, there’s one Phillie in particular that I’m eyeing up to get a hit today.
After a three-hit performance against the Reds on Monday, Bryson Stott ended his eight game hitting streak in Tuesday’s win (he went 0-6). However, since the Phillies hot streak on June 1st began, Stott is hitting .254. Since July 1st, it’s .263. Since August 1st, it’s .321. Stott is white-hot, a lefty bat, and consistently getting better as the season went on. He’s due for a hit after going 0-6 Tuesday and getting the past few days off.
The Phillies are favorites on the Moneyline today, but I’m not sure if I trust them that much. There’s no value there, especially with them as the predicted winners of this game. With how little run support the team has given Nola all season, it’s tough to confidently make that bet.
If you would like a little more value, you could also look at Bradley Zimmer to get a hit. He’s currently sitting at -105 (you’d practically double your money) to get on base at least once and he’s 2-4 with a homer against Bassitt in his career. He was picked up yesterday by Philadelphia to fill the gap in centerfield due to Brandon Marsh’s injury. Or, you could look at Bryson Stott o1.5 bases (+145), meaning he’ll hit at least two singles or one hit of a double or better.
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Photo Credit: AP Photo/Frank Franklin II