The Phillies have officially closed the month of August and did so on a good note. After two rough games against the Diamondbacks, Philadelphia rebounded in a big way, scoring 18 runs in their win on Wednesday night.
They finished August with an 18-11 record, bringing their season record to 73-58, and 51-29 since Rob Thomson took over. Now, they look to bring their momentum into September for a playoff run. That begins with #PhilliesAfterDark with a 10:15 first pitch against Gabe Kapler and the Giants.
Phillies Kyle Gibson (9-5, 4.08 ERA, 114 SO) vs. Giants Alex Cobb (4-6, 3.81 ERA, 115 SO)
Kyle Gibson has had three starts where he’s gone at least scoreless six innings, and his most recent appearance was just that. That game brought his ERA down to 4.08, and he’ll be looking to get that number under four for the first time since June.
He’s in a good spot to do so, as he has had success against the Giants in 2022 already. Granted, it’s only one start, but he allowed two runs on three hits in six innings back on May 30th. Looking at his career, his ERA is 3.90 in four career starts against San Fran. The biggest concern for him is keeping it in the ballpark against the Giants, as six of the 10 runs he’s allowed to them have been from dingers.
However, history in the month of September is not on Gibby’s side. The right-hander’s statistically worst months are August and September (ERA’s of 5.15 and 4.70, the two highest amongst any single month).
On the flip side, Alex Cobb will start for San Fran today. In his first season with San Fran, Cobb has done fairly well. His record may not show it, but his 3.81 ERA isn’t terrible in the grand scheme of things.
Cobb hasn’t faced Philly this year, and he only has two starts against them in his career. One came in 2018, and the other was in 2020. He allowed three runs and no more than four hits in both of those games. Both of those starts were in South Philly as well.
He’ll get the Phillies in San Fran for the first time, a place where he’s pitched great so far this season. In 12 home starts, Cobb has a 2.86 ERA with 10.1 strikeouts per 9 innings.
On the season, he’s pitched pretty evenly against both righties and lefties in terms of batting average (.256 vs. .260, respectively).
Betting Preview and Picks
As mentioned in my previous betting articles, the Phillies are one of the easier schedules down the stretch. The Giants are one of the tougher teams they’ll face down the home stretch, and they’re pretty much out of the playoff race. This being said, they need to continue to beat up on teams like this, even if it isn’t easy. Especially after dropping two of three to the Diamondbacks.
They have one of the hottest lineups in baseball, have scored the fifth-most runs in the entire league (fourth in NL), and have a top-8 team batting average. The team needs to live up to these numbers and get to Cobb quickly and force the Giants to use their bullpen even earlier and more often in this series than they are planning for.
Phillies Lineup vs. Cobb
The Phillies routine lineup doesn’t have the biggest sample size of plate appearances against Cobb. However, when looking at the batter vs. pitcher numbers that ESPN provides, they don’t have the best success against the right-hander:
In the month of August, Alec Bohm recorded a hit in 22 of his 28 games played. It’s almost automatic to bet a Bohm single this season, but Vegas does take that into consideration for their lines. However, there isn’t many safe bets in this game based on historical data, and it’s tough to predict if the Phillies come out on top in this one.
I don’t hate combining a Bohm hit with the over 8 runs in this game. The Phillies offense is streaky, and after scoring 18, I can see them putting up about five or six runs themselves. With a low total of 7.5, it’s tough to take the under especially after that explosive offensive performance. It screams trap, but if I have to pick a side, the over feels like the play.
Combining a Bohm hit with the over is estimated to be around +160, so a $10 bet would win you $16, and you’d collect $26. These are estimated lines, as the official line for Bohm will not be out until later in the day.
Kyle Schwarber is also due for a Schwarbomb. The home run leader in the NL only had three in August, but 27 of his 36 have come against righties. If you’re looking to bet someone to hit a homer today, Schwarbs is likely our guy.
All in all, if you do decide that you can join the action, make sure to do so with one of the promo offer links below. Your bets can be risk-free!
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin