The PGA Tour returns to the States this weekend for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. It makes for a nice opportunity for golfers to breathe after the unforgiving scottish landscapes, and also provides bettors with some interesting options.
Over the past few months, I’ve been building a weekly custom betting model for PGA Tour events. So far, it has been able to accurately predict 4 of the last 11 winners, with plenty of longshots finishing inside the top-20 for good measure.
What goes into building a Custom Model for the 3M Open?
The first thing I do is look at stats that correlate to success at the course in question. In this case, we see a course that embodies PGA Tour play. Flat greens, tree-lined fairways, and a ton of water hazards tick all the boxes here for us to get back to a ‘conventional’ model.
From there, I look at those stats over each golfers last 50 rounds, and then those same stats when playing the course in question and others that have similar profiles. I place a value each stat to bring a combined grade for every golfer in the field.
3M Open model yields a surprising result
The favorite for this weekend’s event is Tony Finau at +1100, but he may not be for long. The odds were already slashing on those around him on Wednesday afternoon, and that trend may continue. It’s safe to say that Finau is the biggest name in this event, but, just like we saw a few weeks ago at the John Deere Classic, that doesn’t mean that the competition is any easier. Finau actually grades out 5th in my model. That doesn’t mean he’s a bad play, there just isn’t a lot of value there.
The top-graded golfer was actually Maverick McNealy at +1600. I bet him on Wednesday morning at +2000. A $10 on McNealy would give you a $200 return! The 26-year-old came 8th at the aforementioned John Deere Classic and has been on a really hot run as of late. He now approaches a course that fits his skillset perfectly and has a weaker strength of field. All the stars seem to be aligning, but can he make the most of it?
Sungjae Im (+1600) and Davis Riley (+1800) rank T-2 in my model. Both are similar plays, but I’d rather get behind Riley due to the fact that his trajectory is ascending. Im’s average finish in his last 10 events is 61.20. Riley’s is 22nd. I’ll take the hotter hand at the higher price here.
Cameron Tringale sits in behind those names leading the next few players. He’s also someone who has recently found his groove as of late and his +1800 price reflects that. 5th in the betting odds, 4th in my model. All signs are pointing to a big weekend from Tringale.
Bargain Bin plays
It’s very hard not to play Callum Tarren this week. He’s +9000 (a $10 bet would return $900!) and is my 12th-ranked-golfer. He does struggle with shorter putts, but he has been absolutely electric over the past few months and if there is ever a course where putting will be easier, it’s this one. If Tarren can play to the level he has been recently, he’s a great pick for a top-20 finish.
I also like Hank Lebioda and Nate Lashley as pivots around the same price point. Both rank inside the top-20 in my model and could be great picks for a top-20 finish, or even better, making the cut. Shorter odds, but a lot of value here.
You can get FULL access to Our ‘The Open’ Custom Model with all stats included AND $7000 worth of free bets for FREE by joining the Philly Sports Network discord server here.
Custom Model top-10
Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire