After an exhilarating finish to the 150th Open Championship, the PGA Tour returns to American Soil for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. Like the weeks before the trip to St. Andrews, we’ll see a condensed field as many of the top names are taking a short break before the run to the PGA Championship begins. This means there is plenty of value to be found on underdogs who have quietly been trending in the right direction.
TPC Twin Cities
For those who struggled in St. Andrews, this will be a breath of fresh air. There’s no undulation, no silly pot bunkers, just flat greens, open fairways, and a consistent tree line on a course laden with water hazards.
Because of this, we often see a ton of birdie scoring, partnered with a ton of penalty strokes. Water shots are inevitable, but so are flat birdie putts if you can find a green in regulation.
Cameron Champ won this event last year with a core of -15 and is +6500 to retain his crown.
The favorite going into this weekend is ‘top-10 Tony’, Tony Finau at +1100. He’s had 3 top-30’s at this event in a row and five in his last six events, including strong 28th place finish at The Open. Outside of a slumping Hideki Matsuyama, he’s easily the strongest golfer in the field.
Sungjae Im is second in the odds rankings at +1600, but he’s been pretty cold over his past 3 events. If you were looking for a pivot from Finau, playing Maverick McNealy, Adam Hadwin, or Cameron Tringale at +1800 may make more sense. Tringale has performed historically well here and has really seemed to have found his footing as of late, but McNealy has gone one further with a top-20 in each of his last three events. As for Hadwin, he’s had back-to-back Top 5’s at the 3M open. All three are very playable here.
Sahith Theegala rolls into town on the back of a few near-misses, but some red-hot form nonetheless. He’s still being undervalued due to inexperience, so grabbing the potential rookie of the year at +2200 could be a steal.
Adam Long is another golfer who fits the ‘trending in the right direction’ profile. He’s had three top-25’s in a row and has a 25th, and 2nd place finish in his two most recent outings here. He’s +2500 this weekend, which is pretty pricy, but given the strength of field, it’s a nice opportunity to play a golfer who could build on his recent run.
A nice longshot could be England’s Callum Tarren at +13000. He has burst onto the scene with some stunning results as of late, with four made cuts in his past six events, and a 6th place finish at the John Deere Classic. He may not win, but a top-20 finish could be on the cards and at this price, it’s worth a punt.
Photo by David Blunsden/Actionplus/Icon Sportswire