PGA Championship: Top five deep-value betting picks

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PEBBLE BEACH, CA – FEBRUARY 06: Matthew Fitzpatrick blasts out of the front bunker of the 18th hole green during the Final Round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am tournament at Pebble Beach Golf Course in Monterey, California.(Photo by Douglas Stringer/Icon Sportswire)

The PGA Championship is upon us and bettors should be excited. This field is stacked with top talent and buried within are some hidden gems who could provide some great value. Here are five deep-value picks bettors should keep their eyes on this week.

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Matt Kuchar

To win: +6000
Top-5: +1000
Top-10: +500

Kuch has been one of my favorite plays over the past month and he just can’t stop proving me right. As one of the vets on tour, he naturally struggles at longer, narrower courses where there’s an emphasis on longer approach play and gaining off the tee. However, this recent run of smaller greens and pesky bunkers lended itself perfectly to one of the better short-game specialists on tour and this weekend could be another fantastic opportunity.

Kuchar grades out as my fifth-best course fit this weekend and has made five consecutive cuts, finishing inside the top 16 on four of those occasions. For some reason, the pricing hasn’t caught up. He won’t be a deep value play all year round and this run will come to an end. I am happy riding this Train all the way until the final stop.

Alex Noren

To win: +8000
Top-5: +1400
Top-10: +650

Noren is a golfer who jumped out at me last week and ended up coming 12th. The fact he’s doing the same here around a course that demands even more emphasis on approach is only prompting me to bet him again.

He’s my seventh-ranked golfer, ranks 7th in putting around similar courses and has been really consistent on approach and around the greens over his last 24 rounds.

Betting on a top-20 finish here could be the play.

Christian Bezuidenhout

To win: +13000
Top-5: +2000
Top-10: +1000

This is a true deep-value play. He leads the field in putting around correlated courses and while that’s not the most important stat here, he has been lethal with the putter in recent weeks. He’s had a top-20 and a top-30 finish, with 4 consecutive made cuts.

A top-20 finish bet here would also be smart, taking advantage of a hot golfer who may lose on approach, but can gain it back very quickly with the putter.

Tommy Fleetwood

To win: +11000
Top-5: +1600
Top-10: +800

The Englishman continues to fly under the radar. He’s my 18th ranked golfer, but has a very strong run of form and has an equally impressive run at similar courses. Fleetwood isn’t the sexiest approach player and he isn’t the best around the green, but he’s stable and this course requires that trait in buckets due to how punishing it can be.

Matt Fitzpatrick

To win: +5000
Top-5: +900
Top-10: +450

The second englishman in this list, Fitzpatrick seems to thrive on tough courses. He was great at Augusta finishing 14th and has been one of the best around the green over his last 24 rounds, ranking 7th out of my graded golfers. There’s some definite value here.

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Photo by Douglas Stringer/Icon Sportswire