We’re now just one day away from the Super Bowl and if you’re like me, now’s the time to start scouring every stat site out there in a bid to find the best edges when it comes to betting the big game. To save you some hard work, I’ve broken down my top-5 prop bets ahead of the big game.
The odds used are from DraftKings Sportsbook, who have an amazing offer for first-time bettors. and if you don’t have an account, imply clicking this sign-up link and betting $5 on the Super Bowl, you can win $280 in free bets if your team wins!
Matt Stafford to throw an interception (-155)
Matt Stafford has had the kind of season fans were always waiting on him to have in Detroit…with one vital exception. He actually led the NFL in interceptions this year with a whopping 17 to his name. He’s been as lethal as he always has been, slinging 41 touchdowns and passing for over 4,800 yards, completing 67.2% of his passes…but he’s still prone to misfires.
The Bengals rank 10th in turnover rate and their secondary is better than most give them credit for. With Logan Wilson lurking over the middle looking to nullify the damage Cooper Kupp will do over the slot, there’s going to be plenty of opportunities for this defense to make its mark…and I think that betting on Stafford to turn the ball over at least once is a pretty solid foundation to build your arsenal of bets from.
Cooper Kupp longest reception: O 28.5 yards (-135)
Not much needs to be said about Cooper Kupp other than the man is an absolute machine. To make the cuts he does, with hands as soft as his, he simply has to be an alien. His 1,947-yard season is just ridiculous when you think about it…but when you dig a little deeper, there’s still value to be had.
As a result of his brutal dominance, the numbers for Kupp’s receiving totals aren’t pretty. You’re having to bet that he’s going to have a 103-yard game and while that’s very likely, the number is still relatively high.
However, 846 of his regular-season yardage came after the catch. The safe leverage play here is to essentially bet on the fact he’s going to have one breakaway catch of 30+ yards. The Bengals will try to put a cap on Kupp, but the band-aid is only going to stop the bleeding for so long…
Joe Mixon Under 60.5 rushing yards (-130)
The Rams defensive line is very good.
The Bengals offensive line is very bad.
Joe Burrow won’t care, but Joe Mixon might. He’s averaged 58.9 yards per contest through his last eight games and outside of his heavier usage against the Chiefs, his rushing yardage has been below the 60.5 prop total in five of his last six.
The Rams will want to nullify the run and force Joey B to throw the ball. All signs are pointing towards Mixon’s total falling below that total.
Joe Burrow Over 35.5 passing attempts (-115)
If you’re going with the Mixon line, you may as well toss this one in for good measure in a parlay and give yourself double the odds. Just as Mixon’s rushing total has decreased in the last eight weeks, Burrow’s passing attempts have rocketed to an average of 36.3.
If the Rams do get ahead early, this number should be very attainable.
Cincinnati Bengals Over 1.5 Field Goals (-115)
Even McPherson has been somewhat of a sensation at the kicker position this season. The conflicting opinions about his drafting in the fifth-round all look a bit silly now. He’s 12/12 this postseason, accounting for 40 of the team’s 72 points.
Talking of the number 12, that’s also the number of 50+ yard field goals he’s made this year.
Knowing that points could be hard to come by against a stout Rams defense, expect McPherson to be leaned on early and often.
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