The PGA Tour heads to one final stop before the PGA Championship – the AT&T Byron Nelson. Here are my five best bets ahead of the event.
After successfully landing a bet on 40/1 Max Homa last week, it’s kind of important for this series to continue. Since starting it, I’ve gotten at least a top-20 finish each week. Can we pick two winners in a row?
Justin Thomas
To win: +900
Thomas comes into this weekend as a perfect fit for the course. He’s second only to Kitayama in Strokes-gained on approach and also second in tee-to-green. His form has been good this year but he hasn’t had that big win. With the PGA Championship around the corner, this would be the perfect spot to grind out a victory.
Will Zalatoris
To win +1400
Zalatoris has been a love of mine for some time now. The rest of the world seems to be noticing how good he is, as he’s actually the third-highest priced golfer. I don’t think that’s accurate, but he’s had three top-10’s in a row and is arguably one of the most well-rounded players on tour now that his putter is working with him and not against him. It would not surprise me to see Zalatoris make up for lost time and finally secure that first tour win.
Matt Nesmith
To win: +13000
As a deep-value play, I love Matt Nesmith. I profiled similar courses to see which golfers faired well. Nesmith has a 12th, 48th, and 33rd place finish to his name. On top of that, he’s had 3 top-15’s in his last four events and is gaining 0.66 strokes per round on approach. He may not win, but he’s a very fun deep value play.
Adam Hadwin
To win: +5500
Hadwin is like a premium version of Nesmith. He’ll cost a little more, but for that, you get a golfer who is piping hot in gaining strokes from tee-to-green and prior to his missed cut last week, four straight top-30 finishes, three of which were top-10s. He has extensive history around courses with similar profiles and has fared very well, missing only one cut.
Johnny Vegas
To win: +5500
Vegas is the happy middle ground between Nesmith and Hadwin. He doesn’t gain as much tee-to-green, but has come 15th, 18th, 4th, and 27th, in his last four events. Add in some strong performances at similarly profiled courses and you should have a fairly high floor considering his price.
Photo by Matthew Maxey/Icon Sportswire
