The trade talks continue and the Eagles continue to be brought up as suitors for Jadeveon Clowney. With rumors come questions: How much should the Eagles give? Can they afford him? Would he even want to play in a rotation during a contract year?
However, an interesting thing to consider, is whether Clowney is worth paying for the long term. Obviously, he won’t be cheap. In fact, some say he wants to be the top paid pass rusher in the league. So is he worth being paid like a top pass rusher? Let’s look at the numbers:
Choosing the field and variables
I included players with the following criteria:
- Either top paid entering 2019 or top-rated player in 2018 rated by PFF.
- Played 3 or more years (to evaluate progression).
- Only 5 first career years are included.
As a result, the field comprised of Khalil Mack, Von Miller, Demarcus Lawrence, JJ Watt, Justin Houston, Frank Clark, Chandler Jones, Melvin Ingram III, Olivier Vernon, Trey Flowers, and Cameron Jordan.
Pass rush ability will be compared on sacks, hurries, and pass rush grade.
Run defense ability will be compared on run stops and run defense grade.
Production:
The first thing that jumps out is that Clowney finishes 3rd last in sacks, ahead of Melvin Ingram and Trey Flowers, who only played 3 full seasons. Further, Clowney finishes last in both hurries and run stops, most notably beaten by 4th-year player Frank Clark and Flowers again.
Now, Clowney did miss significant time in 2014, which of course factors into the numbers, however, most of these players missed significant time at some point during their first 5 seasons.
Pass rush grades:
Notably, guys like Khalil Mack, Von Miller, and JJ Watt flat out dominated with elite scores already from year 2.
Then you have a group of slow risers like Lawrence, Ingram, Houston, Vernon, and Jones, who took a few years to really break out and post an 80+ score on the year.
Finally, your last group of players with Clark, Flowers, and Jordan have a similar progression to Clowney, that is slow, steady progression over the years. But none of these names have broke out for an 80+ rating yet in their career.
Run defense grades:
This is where Clowney joins the big guys. Although Mack and Miller are in a league of their own, you have Clowney and Watt right after with an average grade of 84 and 83 each year, respectively.
The second tier of players with average grades in the mid-70’s are Lawrence, Houston, and Flowers – not a bad group to beat by almost 10 points for Clowney.
In conclusion: Is Clowney worth the big $?
In summary, Clowney is in the group of slowest group of pass rush progression, and his average yearly grade of 68 is second lowest of all. Combined with the least amount of hurries and bottom tier sacks, pass rush is not the reason you buy into him. However, an encouraging sign is the steady progression he has made over the years, begging the question if a breakout year is just around the corner.
The ultimate reason you buy into Clowney and let him take his time to finally break out in pass rush, is his elite top 3 ability to play the run. Being in company with Mack and Miller in any category is a sign of quality.
If the Eagles ultimately end up trading for him, he needs to prove he can be a high-end pass rusher. If he does, his run defense numbers suggest he could be worth a big contract.
Mandatory Photo Credit: AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith
