Mexico Open 2024: PGA Tour betting preview & Predictions

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PGA tour Mexico open
LA JOLLA, CA – JANUARY 26: Brandon Wu tees off on the 2nd hole on the South Course during the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open golf tournament at Torrey Pines Municipal Golf Course on January 26, 2020. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

After a stunning weekend at the Genesis Open, the PGA Tour heads to Vedanta Vallarta for the Mexico Open Championship. Tony Finau was able to fend off John Rahm in last year’s running of the event, but will he be able to repeat that feat in 2024?

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Mexico Open: The favorites

Tony Finau+800
Nicolai Hojgaard+1600
Stephan Jaegar+2200
Keith Mitchell+2200
Thomas Detry+2500
Taylor Pendrith+2500
Emiliano Grillo+2500
Thorbjoirn Olesen+3000

Mexico Open: The field

Tony Finau comes in as the heavy favorite for this weekend’s event and understandably so. This is a pretty weak field in comparison to what we saw at The Genesis, and Finau is not only the defending champ, but the best Golfer in the field by some distance.

3M open Mexico open
HOUSTON, TX – NOVEMBER 13: Tony Finau (USA) celebrates after winning tournament in the Final Round of the Cadence Bank Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course on November 13, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

Nicolai Hojgaard is a name hotly tipped to get his maiden PGA Tour victory this season, and he has a great chance to do so in a field lacking elite talent. The Dane proved his salt at The Ryder Cup, came narrowly short of a win on tour just a few weeks ago, and has ripped up the DP World Tour for long enough for him to be a very viable contender this weekend. I’d rather be early to Hojgaard’s arrival than late, and he looks primed to make a run at the Mexico Open.

Emiliano Grillo Is going to be a fun name to watch too. He might have come 44th last weekend, but he did win the Charles Schwab Challenge last year. The Argentine isn’t the longest hitter, but he’s accurate and ranks 27th in strokes-gained putting. Both metrics are crucial around this track.

Where to find value at the Mexico Open

There are a few really intriguing names at the Mexico Open depending on how you view the field. We’ve already seen a flurry of longshot winners this season and there’s no reason we couldn’t see another at Vedanta.

Erik Van Rooyen

To win: +3500
Top-5: +700
Top-10: +350

EVR has finished inside the top-25 3 times this season already and although he was a little off the mark last time out, he is primed for a rebound here. Van Rooyen looked good for most of last year’s tournament until a poor +3 on the final day killed his top-10 chances. He ranks 18th in GIR% this season and 10th in scoring average. If he’s able to stay consistent, as well as long off the tee (27th), then he should be in a similar spot to last year. I like his odds at the Mexico Open.

The open pga tour
PACIFIC PALISADES, CA – FEBRUARY 20: Maverick McNealy hits a tee shot on the 4th hole during the final round of The Genesis Invitational on February 20, 2022, at Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, CA. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

Jonny Vegas

To win: +5500
Top-5: +1100
Top-10: +500

It’s been a slow start to the year for Vegas, but he thrives at these kinds of courses and is a three-time winner on tour. We’re looking for someone in this range who can get hot, and most importantly, stay hot on that final day. He ranks 5th off the tee and 5th in GIR%. Some consistency with the putter is all that’s stopping him from contending at the Mexico Open.

Robert MacIntyre

To win: +9000
Top-5: +1800
Top-10: +800

If you want some serious deep value, look no further than Bob MacIntyre. He’s only made one cut this season so his price is very high, but he has been atrocious with his putter, losing SEVEN strokes to the field at the Farmer’s Insurance Open. He’s typically a neutral putter, so we can expect some level of positive trajectory. He’s a great player on European soil and perhaps a course like this will bring the best out of him. At a +800 shot to land in the top-10, I don’t mind taking a punt.

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Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire