After a stunning weekend at the Genesis Open, the PGA Tour heads to Vedanta Vallarta for the Mexico Open Championship. Tony Finau was able to fend off John Rahm in last year’s running of the event, but will he be able to repeat that feat in 2024?
Mexico Open: The favorites
| Tony Finau | +800 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | +1600 |
| Stephan Jaegar | +2200 |
| Keith Mitchell | +2200 |
| Thomas Detry | +2500 |
| Taylor Pendrith | +2500 |
| Emiliano Grillo | +2500 |
| Thorbjoirn Olesen | +3000 |
Mexico Open: The field
Tony Finau comes in as the heavy favorite for this weekend’s event and understandably so. This is a pretty weak field in comparison to what we saw at The Genesis, and Finau is not only the defending champ, but the best Golfer in the field by some distance.
Nicolai Hojgaard is a name hotly tipped to get his maiden PGA Tour victory this season, and he has a great chance to do so in a field lacking elite talent. The Dane proved his salt at The Ryder Cup, came narrowly short of a win on tour just a few weeks ago, and has ripped up the DP World Tour for long enough for him to be a very viable contender this weekend. I’d rather be early to Hojgaard’s arrival than late, and he looks primed to make a run at the Mexico Open.
Emiliano Grillo Is going to be a fun name to watch too. He might have come 44th last weekend, but he did win the Charles Schwab Challenge last year. The Argentine isn’t the longest hitter, but he’s accurate and ranks 27th in strokes-gained putting. Both metrics are crucial around this track.
Where to find value at the Mexico Open
There are a few really intriguing names at the Mexico Open depending on how you view the field. We’ve already seen a flurry of longshot winners this season and there’s no reason we couldn’t see another at Vedanta.
Erik Van Rooyen
To win: +3500
Top-5: +700
Top-10: +350
EVR has finished inside the top-25 3 times this season already and although he was a little off the mark last time out, he is primed for a rebound here. Van Rooyen looked good for most of last year’s tournament until a poor +3 on the final day killed his top-10 chances. He ranks 18th in GIR% this season and 10th in scoring average. If he’s able to stay consistent, as well as long off the tee (27th), then he should be in a similar spot to last year. I like his odds at the Mexico Open.
Jonny Vegas
To win: +5500
Top-5: +1100
Top-10: +500
It’s been a slow start to the year for Vegas, but he thrives at these kinds of courses and is a three-time winner on tour. We’re looking for someone in this range who can get hot, and most importantly, stay hot on that final day. He ranks 5th off the tee and 5th in GIR%. Some consistency with the putter is all that’s stopping him from contending at the Mexico Open.
Robert MacIntyre
To win: +9000
Top-5: +1800
Top-10: +800
If you want some serious deep value, look no further than Bob MacIntyre. He’s only made one cut this season so his price is very high, but he has been atrocious with his putter, losing SEVEN strokes to the field at the Farmer’s Insurance Open. He’s typically a neutral putter, so we can expect some level of positive trajectory. He’s a great player on European soil and perhaps a course like this will bring the best out of him. At a +800 shot to land in the top-10, I don’t mind taking a punt.
Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire
