The Philadelphia Phillies have a 1-0 series lead over the Atlanta Braves following Saturday night’s 3-0 win. Some fans were surprised, but others knew that a repeat of last year’s playoff showdown was always a possibility. Can the Phillies advance to 2-0 on Monday night?
Phillies vs Braves info
Date: Monday, October 9th
Time: 6:00PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta
TV channel: MLB TV, TBS
Phillies vs Braves Betting odds
Money line: Philadelphia Phillies (-162) | Atlanta Braves (+136)
Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+130) | Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-155)
Run total: Over/Under 8 (-110)
Pitching matchup
Zack Wheeler (13-6, 3.61 ERA) vs Max Fried (8-1, 2.55 ERA)
Happy Wheelsday! The last time Zack Wheeler took the mound, he allowed just one run in 6 innings against the Miami Marlins, spurring Philadelphia to an important victory. He’ll look to replicate that against a Braves offense that led the league in batting average (.276) during the regular season.
Expecting another shutout might be a bit much, but Zack Wheeler is 12-7 in games against the Braves with an ERA of 3.18. His postseason ERA stands at 2.55, which is beyond impressive and there’s no reason to suggest that form will change on Monday.
Across from Wheeler will be Max Fried, who has a 1.88 ERA over his last 4 starts. He’s allowed 16 hits through those 24 innings, striking out 27. This tops what has been a remarkable year for Fried, who somehow replicated his 2022 dominance. The Phillies will have a hard time breaking him down, although he’s only 2-4 against the Phillies with a 4.02 ERA. That’s certainly something worth noting.
The total for this game is 8, with expectations that a playoff atmosphere will drive offense even with two incredible pitchers. However, it might be wise to look at betting the UNDER given the prestige of both and the fact that only 3 runs were scored on Saturday on a combined 11 hits.
Phillies vs Braves Betting preview
Trying to find an edge against a pitcher as lethal as Max Fried might feel impossible, but the Braves and Phillies clash so much that it’s easier to get a feel for which batters actually stand a chance of registering hits and runs against him.
Below are a few names and their record vs Max Fried:
Trea Turner: .400 (14H, 1 HR, 2 RBI on 35 at-bats)
Nick Castellanos: .615 (8H, 1HR, 2 RBI, 13 at-bats)
J.T Realmuto: .350 (14H, 3HR, 9RBI, 40 at bats)
Of these names, Trea Turner might be the most appealing. He’s fresh off of a 1-run game and has recorded a hit in each of his last 7. He’s -275 to record a hit on Monday night and +500 to hit a home run.
If you are looking for the home run prop, then J.T Realmuto is going to be the guy. While he doesn’t homer often, he did hit one out of the park against the Miami Marlins and now faces a pitcher who he has scored a hat-trick of home runs against in the past. He’s also +500 to hit another on Monday night.
Elsewhere, Nick Castellanos has been profitable for some time now. He has 7 hits in his last 10 games and is someone who Max Fried has continuously struggled against. He’s +550 to record a home run on Monday night.
From an Atlanta Braves perspective, this is a must-win and that should be enough of a spark to kickstart an offense that has terrorized bullpens all year. I like Ronald Acuña Jr to at least register a hit. He had a .337 batting average during his record-breaking 2022 season and his .596 slugging percentage is outstanding. He was held hitless against Philadelphia and has now been off the box score for 2 games in a row.
He registered hits in all 8 games before that and is +150 to record 2+ on Monday night. Those are good odds considering he broke through that total in 3 of his last 10 games. Acuna Jr has also scored 4 home runs against Wheeler during his career, although has only managed a .261 batting average. The odds on a home run are +380, so not a ton of value, as is the case with most of people Braves players.
Game prediction:
Winning on the road is absolutely huge for the Phillies in this series. The pitching matchup on Monday is going to be an intense affair, but it’s one that the away team can absolutely win. Rob Thomson flexed his smarts in the Game 1 win by keeping the Braves on their toes with his constant reshuffling of the bullpen.
It was enough to silence the feared Atlanta offense and while it would be unfair to expect the same, I do think that the Phillies might be the one team who have enough firepower to push past Max Fried and deal some minor damage in the early innings.
Game prediction: Phillies outright
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AP Photo/Matt Slocum
