Phillies vs Braves: Betting preview & best bets for NLDS Game 1

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Philadelphia Phillies’ J.T. Realmuto reacts after hitting a home run against Miami Marlins pitcher David Robertson during the fourth inning of Game 2 in an NL wild-card baseball playoff series, Wednesday, Oct. 4, 2023, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

The Philadelphia Phillies had the cleanest Wildcard series you can hope for.

Other than a couple of scares from Josh Bell, the Miami Marlins offense never settled in, and impressive performances from Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola should have Philly fans feeling optimistic as they head down South.

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We’ve been holding our breath, and it’s finally here – a 2022 National League Divisional Series rematch against the Atlanta Braves. The Braves are out for revenge, with an arguably more impressive squad than last season, so this won’t be easy, but if anyone can do it, it’s these pesky Phillies.

Gambling picks for Game 1 of the NLDS at WarnerBrothersDiscovery Field are here.

Phillies v. Braves game info

  • Location: Truist Park – Atlanta, GA
  • Time: October 7th, 6:07p EST
  • Channel: TBS

Phillies v. Braves Betting Stats:

FANDUELPHILLIES (+172), BRAVES (-205)BRAVES -1.5 (-102)8.5
DRAFTKINGSPHILLIES, (+170), BRAVES (-205)BRAVES -1.5 (+100)8.5

Phillies v. Braves: Pitching Matchup

Ranger Suárez (4-6, 4.18 ERA) v. Spencer Strider (20-5, 3.86 ERA)

After facing the Braves six times last season, Suárez tallied just one start against the divisional rivals in 2023. He pitched 6.0 innings of one-run ball, but the playoffs are different.

Austin Riley, in particular, has been a thorn in Suárez’s side. Through 18 plate appearances, Riley’s got an OPS of 1.233 and reached base safely nine times.

Philadelphia Phillies’ Ranger Suarez pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the Atlanta Braves, Tuesday, June 20, 2023, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

On the bright side, Travis d’Arnaud, Michael Harris II, and Ozzie Albies have hit a collective .132 with eight strikeouts through 40 PAs. Those aren’t exactly the scariest names in the Atlanta lineup, but Suárez should see each of them at least twice on Saturday.

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As for the lefty’s strikeout total, if I’m a betting man, Vegas likely sets the O/U at 4.5. Suárez’s averaged about 5.5 strikeouts per start, while the Braves are retired by K almost eight times per game. It’s a solid number for the Bravos, and I don’t trust Suárez to go very deep into Game 1.

Under on strikeouts for Rango Tango.

Quick Hits – Phillies vs Braves


Cristian Pache was a great story against the Marlins. His RBI single in Game 1 gave the Phillies a 3-0 lead they wouldn’t surrender, but now it’s time for Brandon Marsh.

Marsh is one of the few Philadelphia hitters that seems to have Strider figured out. Although he’s been struck out five times in 2022, thanks to two extra-base hits, he’s sporting a 1.333 OPS.

I like adding Marsh on an SGP to record 2+ bases at +230 odds (FanDuel). Tie that with Suárez 4+ strikeouts; you can expect odds over +400.

Speed Kills

Trea Turner and Bryson Stott have been electric on the basepath. You can still get them at fantastic odds to swipe a bag.

The Phillies averaged 0.87 stolen bases per game in the regular season, and this speedy duo accounted for 43% of their total 141. Turner swiped two bags in the Wildcard round, and you can get +330 odds for him to do it again on Saturday. Stott, on the other hand, +340. Am I talking myself into another SGP?

Matt Olson, Kyle Schwarber home run special

I’m having a little fun with this one, but an SGP featuring a homer from Olson and Schwarber nets +2405 odds ($10 to win $240). Considering this duo finished 1st and 2nd, respectively, in MLB home runs, you can do much, much worse.

On second thought, maybe save this for a game in Philadelphia. For his career, Olson’s hit a homer in 15% of his total plate appearances at Citizens Bank Park.

Phillies vs Braves betting offers

AP Photo/Matt Slocum