The Phillies could take a series from the Atlanta Braves. That’s something they haven’t done since late July, and they have an 8-10 record to show for it. If you’ve watched, it’s surprising they’ve been as close to .500 because they haven’t looked good against the Sunbelt’s team.
The NL East crown may be out of reach, but this game has significant Wildcard implications. The Phillies are 0.5 games back of the San Diego Padres and 1.5 games ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers.
Philadelphia can’t afford to lose right now, and we’ll make sure you don’t lose money either.
Braves vs. Phillies Pitching matchup Sunday, September 25th
Charlie Morton (9-6, 4.09 ERA) v. Kyle Gibson (10-7, 4.71 ERA)
BRAVES
The former Phil, Morton, has been shaky against the good guys this season. His 4.15 ERA through four starts in 2022 aligns with his ERA for the season. Across those games, he’s averaged 5.5 strikeouts. More on that later.
The Phillies need to jump on Morton in the first inning, where he has a 4.79 ERA before he historically settles in as the game progresses.
PHILLIES
Gibson hasn’t been great. Since shipping Spencer Howard and others to the Texas Rangers, the return has been mediocre. A 4.83 ERA and 4.17 FIP speak for themselves.
Gibson has had success against the Braves, however. His 3.27 ERA and 6/SO per game are promising, and Gibson needs a couple of convincing starts if he wants to secure a spot on the playoff roster.
What an audition against another playoff team (am I getting ahead of myself?).
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So we’re taking the Phillies outright. A $10 bet on Phillies +120 money line pays out $12. Easy enough.
Then we’re going to dip into the strikeout well. If you parlay your risk-free bet of Morton and Gibson to record 6+ strikeouts, you get +318 odds. That’s $10 to win $31.88; historically, it looks decent.
Finally, we’re going long on Brandon Marsh. If he goes long, $10 wins you $87. I have a good feeling about this. Let’s ride.
AP Photo/Matt Slocum