Predicting 2022-23 stats for the Philadelphia 76ers’ rotation

Tobias Harris, Sixers
CHICAGO, IL – FEBRUARY 06: Philadelphia 76ers Forward Tobias Harris (12) dribbles the ball in a action during a NBA game between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Chicago Bulls on February 6, 2022 at the United Center in Chicago, IL. (Photo by Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire)

As the start of the Philadelphia 76ers‘ 2022-2023 NBA season approaches, when they’ll tip off against the Boston Celtics, it’s time to try to anticipate all of the success and glory that is soon to come. After an offseason as fruitful as the one that Team President Daryl Morey just had, it’s hard not to get too carried away while waiting for one of the deepest rosters the Sixers have fielded to begin their title chase.

Now that the league is in the true dog days of the offseason — past the draft, the heat of free agency, and summer league but still months away from opening day — fans and analysts are eager for any kind of content they can get their hands on including NBA schedule announcements which have recently become an event of its own. Since nothing is happening to analyze, we’re left with only either the past or the future to look into.

I have elected to take my swing at futurism in this instance, as I’ll do my best to try to predict statistical averages for all of the Philadelphia 76ers’ projected rotation players next season. Of course, that entails nailing down the actual lineups that Head Coach Doc Rivers plans on deploying next year.

The ten players most likely to get significant playing time, and as such will get a stats prediction from me, are: Joel Embiid, James Harden, Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey, P.J. Tucker, Danuel House, Georges Niang, De’Anthony Melton, Matisse Thybulle, and Paul Reed, as he’s the lone true big left on the Philadelphia 76ers’ bench and garnered Rivers’ respect in last year’s playoffs.

Philadelphia 76ers projected stat lines:

Joel Embiid projected stat line:

27.6 points, 10.5 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.8 blocks, 0.9 steals, 50.5 percent field goal, 38.8 percent 3-point field goal, 30.5 minutes

I’m predicting that Joel Embiid will take a small step back in just about every counting stat. While the MVP candidate’s numbers only rose with James Harden coming into town to run the show, a full season with the Beard on board as well as a more fleshed-out roster will probably also mean less responsibility on Embiid’s shoulders and more blowout victories. As such, it should take a much less Herculean effort from Embiid on a night-to-night basis.

James Harden projected stat line:

22.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, 11.1 assists, 0.3 blocks, 1.4 steals, 44.7 percent field goal, 35.8 percent 3-point field goal, 37.8 minutes

With a full offseason to get healthy and more chemistry built up with the Philadelphia 76ers (including some familiar teammates), I’m expecting a bit of a career renaissance for the former MVP. While he probably won’t notch the astronomical scoring output that he did in Houston, there’s no reason that Harden can’t compete for the assist crown with a full season of dishing to Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, and company.

Tyrese Maxey projected stat line:

18.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 0.4 blocks, 0.8 steals, 52.3 percent field goal, 37.4 percent 3-point field goal, 38.9 minutes

While this may seem like a stagnant year for the Kentucky product in terms of development, this would be a beyond admirable campaign for Maxey’s third year, especially given how many mouths the Philadelphia 76ers have to feed on offense. I expect his ridiculous 3-point efficiency from last season will return to the troposphere next year, but his 2-point percentage should climb given a full season next to Harden. He could very well lead the league in minutes in 2022-2023, given his spry legs and Coach Rivers’ penchant for taxing his starters.

Tobias Harris projected stat line:

15.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.6 blocks, 44.8 percent field goal, 36.7 percent 3-point field goal, 34.5 minutes

Tobias Harris is probably going to look a lot more like the Tobi we saw in these last playoffs than the midrange maestro that he’s been for most of his Sixers career. With the Beard in tow and Maxey’s continued ascension, Harris will naturally be the one who takes the backseat on offense. His turning into a $37 million 3-and-D wing is the best thing for the Philadelphia 76ers and could take him off of the trading block.

P.J. Tucker projected stat line:

6.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks, 49.4 percent field goal, 40.8 percent 3-point field goal, 26.4 minutes

Equipped with an exceptionally deep roster, the Philadelphia 76ers shouldn’t have to rely on the 37-year-old P.J. Tucker for true starter’s minutes, although he might begin and close games for Philly next season. He should see a lot more wide-open looks from the corners as Joel Embiid, and James Harden carry much more offensive gravity than their Miami Heat counterparts that Tucker played with last season in Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler.

De’Anthony Melton projected stat line:

12.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.4 blocks, 44.2 percent field goal, 36.7 percent 3-point field goal, 22.6 minutes

If Tucker gets the nod as the Philadelphia 76ers’ fifth starter, then De’Anthony Melton should be their first man off of the bench. Melton should get plenty of run as the third guard on the team and should feast on both on and off-ball opportunities.

Danuel House projected stat line:

6.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.4 blocks, 45.2 percent field goal, 35.8 percent 3-point field goal, 20.5 minutes

As the designated 3-and-D wing off of the bench, Danuel House will replicate Danny Green’s role from last season and should produce similar statistical output for the Philadelphia 76ers. The exception is that House will provide actual stops instead of just a reputation of being a perimeter stopper.

Georges Niang projected stat line:

5.8 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.2 blocks, 43.8 percent field goal, 40.2 percent 3-point field goal, 16.6 minutes

With the Philadelphia 76ers adding three rotation players in the offseason, Niang will see his role reduced among others still expected to receive meaningful playing time. He should excel in a familiar role as a reserve sniper and connector on offense.

Matisse Thybulle projected stat line:

4.8 points, 2.5 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.8 blocks, 42.8 percent field goal, 34.6 percent 3-point field goal, 14.8 minutes

Matisse Thybulle is the Sixer most likely to be traded before the deadline next season. If he’s to remain with the Philadelphia 76ers, he’ll have to make some kind of improvement as a jump shooter. Hopefully, in a more refined role, he’ll be able to find a decent groove from deep, develop a lukewarm hot spot, and bump up his career 3-point percentage.

Paul Reed projected stat line:

4.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks, 54.5 percent field goal, 12.5 percent 3-point field goal, 13.5 minutes

P.J. Tucker, Tobias Harris, and even Georges Niang will likely see some minutes at center for the Philadelphia 76ers next season, but Paul Reed should be the team’s official backup anchor. In spot minutes, he should be able to positively impact the game with his feel and energy. He’ll hit one end of shot clock heave from deep out of eight attempts; book it.