Over the past few months, I’ve been building a weekly custom betting model for PGA Tour events. So far, it has been able to accurately predict 4 of the last 9 winners, with plenty of longshots finishing inside the top-20 for good measure. The Scottish Open takes place this weekend and the model has kicked up some interesting results.
What goes into the model?
The first thing I do is look at stats that correlate to success at the course in question. In this case, it’s The Renaissance club. There’s an emphasis on distance off the tee, long-range approaches, and an ability to keep three-putting to a minimum on these gigantic greens. Expect Golfers to barrage the greens from long-distance knowing they can putt their way to a good score.
From there, I look at those stats over each golfers last 50 rounds, and then those stats when playing the course in question and others that have similar profiles.
The Scottish Open model results
Scottie Scheffler grades out as my top golfer this week, but not by much. That’s not to say that he and Justin Thomas are bad plays, but they are two of the four most expensive golfers, so without one being a clear runaway, it’s hard to really get behind one of them substantially.
The value here, in my opinion, comes in the way of Sam Burns. He’s double the price of Justin Thomas at The Scottish Open and has been lights out around correlated courses. Most importantly, he’s the only golfer inside the top-10 in my model to gain over 0.7 strokes putting. This could be vital and gives him a slight edge over the other names given he’s only one stroke back in grading.
Will Zalatoris grades out as my 5th best golfer and could be an intriguing play here. He’s come so close to winning his first PGA Tour event on three occasions, two of which have been at majors. If there’s ever a course that’s going to punish his putting, this is the one, but his ball-striking is arguably the best in the field and if he can ride the current wave of momentum that has seen him finish 45th on average over his last 10 events, then he should have top-10 shouts come Sunday.
I have a soft spot for Xander Shcauffele after he won two weeks ago. He’s my 6th graded golfer and is heating up at the perfect time. Schauffele ranks among the best in the field in most key metrics. Could he go 2-for-2 by winning here as well? Why not! He did come 10th at The Scottish Open last year after all. If you don’t want to back a favorite but want to bet behind a player who has the ability to play with the best of them, either of these players would be viable options.
|Top 10 Golfers for the Scottish Open||Grade|
|Scottie Scheffler (+1200)||-21|
|Justin Thomas (+1400)||-20|
|Sam Burns (+2800)||-20|
|Jon Rahm (+1200)||-17|
|Will Zalatoris (+2200)||-17|
|Xander Schauffele (+1800)||-16|
|Hideki Matsuyama (+3000)||-15|
|Cameron Smith (+2500)||-14|
|Patrick Cantlay (+2200)||-13|
You can get access to the full model with all stats included AND $7000 worth of RISK-FREE betting offers by joining the Philly Sports Network discord server here.
Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire