Fresh off an enthralling weekend at Augusta the PGA Tour heads to South Carolina for the RBC Heritage event. While not every golfer will be present, the field is stacked with big names and there is plenty of value to be found ahead of the tournament.
The course itself is an interesting one. A par-71, Harbour Town Golf Links offers a unique challenge of significantly smaller greens than most courses, and shorter holes overall. This brings the shorter, more accurate hitters into play. In other events, the big hitters would be able to command the field and take on those greater risks, but here, laying up is the name of the game…and with less 3-putts on the cards thanks to the smaller greens, you can dive deep into the betting tables to find some value on guys who would otherwise be left out of the equation.
Corey Conners
Win +2500
Top-5 +600
Top-10 +250
You don’t have to look far to find Conners on the betting odds. He’s currently the tenth highest-priced golfer coming into this weekend and with good reason. He offers just as much upside as guys like Justin Thomas, but with a much better price. He gains 0.45 shots per round on approach, has made 5 consecutive cuts, 4 of which he’s finished inside the top-25, and he came 4th here last year.
If you’re going to bet a big dog, Conners could be the play.
Shane Lowry / Daniel Berger
Win +1800
Top-5: +350
Top-10 +190
I’m pairing these together as they have the same odds and a similar level of appeal. Lowry has been criminally underrated this year despite being one of the best golfers on tour and has finished 9th and 3rd here in two of the previous three years. He’s also been remarkable with the putter, gaining an average 0.77 shots per round in his last 50, ranking third behind only Cam Smith and Brian Gay.
As for Daniel Berger, he’s someone that has three solid years at this course behind him (13th, 3rd, 33rd) and has been brilliant on approach this year, making him a real force to be reckoned with from within 150-yards, which could be pivotal this weekend.
Alex Noren
Win: +5000
Top-5: +1000
Top-10: +400
Noren is a real wildcard this weekend. He’s another golfer with a great track record here. What really stands out is that he ranks 22nd in this field in tee-to-green over his last 36 rounds. His putting has been as solid as one could find and he’s very strong around the green, although that may not be as vital here. If Noren can find a little more accuracy with his mid-irons, he could very easily play himself into contention.
Adam Hadwin
Win: +6000
Top-5: +1200
Top-10: +500
He may not have qualified for the Masters, but Adam Hadwin is a reliable mid-iron player who is improving on approach this year and outside of not qualifying to play at Augusta, has three consecutive top-10 finishes on tour. It’s a deep value play, but one worth looking at.
Lanto Griffin
Win: +18000
Top-5: +3000
Top-10: +1500
I’m a sucker for Lanto Griffin. He’s volatile and is never a sure-fire bet to make the cut, but he’s a well-rounded player whose weaknesses could be negated by a shorter course. He gained 5 shots on approach at the Valero and if he can keep firing at a similar level as he did to start the year, then there’s some nice value to be found here.
Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire
