Allen Robinson might be the most attractive free-agent wideout for the Philadelphia Eagles this offseason. But just how much will the veteran wideout be looking for when it comes to working out a contract? It’s time to zoom out and look at the wider picture to get a rough idea as to how much Roseman and company should be willing to fork out.
The intrinsic value of Allen Robinson
As a fit for the Eagles, there may be none better. The physical wideout has some of the safest hands in football and is the perfect possession-based receiver to partner with DeVonta Smith.
The 28-year-old is set to hit the open market in a very unique situation. He played on the franchise tag last year which was valued at $17.9M, however, a 410-yard season did anything but prove he was worth the price to pay and it was a far cry from his 1,200-yard season only one year before. In fairness, it wasn’t his fault that the Bears’ offense was an utter mess with no reliable arm at quarterback. But the drop in production is only going to hurt him.
If we’re to go off of the career trajectory of Allen Robinson alone, we can probably assume that an average year would bring around 800 yards and 7 touchdowns. But is he worth more or less than the franchise tag he played on last year?
Several wideouts signed new deals in 2021 and provide us with a rough idea as to how Robinson’s new deal could be valued.
Tim Patrick: 3-year, $34m, $11.5m guaranteed
Curtis Samuel, 3-year, $34.5m, $21.5m guaranteed
Corey Davis 3-year, $37.5m, $27m guaranteed
Courtland Sutton 4-year $60m, $18.85m guaranteed
Robert Woods 4-year $65m, $18.2m guaranteed
Tyler Lockett 4-year, $69m, $24m guaranteed
Kenny Golladay 4-year, $72m, $28m guaranteed
These are all obviously contextual. Tyler Lockett’s deal was structured to help Seattle, and Courtland Sutton previously tore his ACL and as a result, probably has the most appealing deal of the lot. But how did those receivers fare in 2021?
Again, this is contextual. Curtis Samuel was limited to 5 games after a groin injury ruined his first season in Washington, but we all know he could be a menace opposite Terry McLaurin. Kenny Golladay’s deal does look like quite the overpayment, and when you consider Golladay’s deal ranks 7th among all NFL WR’s, Lockett’s 9th, Woods 11th (IR), and Sutton 13th, the production doesn’t necessarily marry the value of the contract.
It’s fair to assume that an average Allen Robinson season would sit right in the middle of this group. The mean value of all of those contracts would be $53.1m. Given the all-star slate of wideouts set to hit the open market, and the fact that Robinson is coming off of a down year, the Eagles could probably look to sign him for around $45-$50M over four years.
That would mean his average salary is $11.75M, if we put the deal at $47M, which is more than affordable for the Eagles and would rank him 20th in AAV, just below Corey Davis, but above Tim Patrick. Guaranteeing him a large portion of that deal (around $22M would be the average from the above contracts) would go a long way in securing his services considering how much Robinson pushed for long-term security, and it would benefit the Eagles by giving them a second reliable wide receiver to build the offense around.
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