Key stats suggest Eagles QB Carson Wentz is among the best in the NFL

When it comes to quarterbacking debates, there’s never really an end to the cases you can make. But there’s one that Eagles fans consistently have to try and prove when in reality, it should already be a widespread opinion. Carson Wentz is among the NFL’s best quarterbacks. If you ever find yourself needing to hammer that point home, here are some great stats to use.

Context of WR play:

Before getting into the various statistics, I just want to remind everybody what Carson Wentz has been working at WR throughout his career.

Objectively measuring WRs is tough, because you can always make the argument that their production can reflect the QB’s ability to get them the ball. However, judging their careers regardless of team should provide context.

Carson Wentz has played with 19 WRs in his his 4 year young career:

  • 9 are out of the league
  • 7 were UDFAs
  • 2 have had >600 yards with the Eagles
  • None of them have had 1,000 yards with the Eagles
  • 3 had 1000 yard seasons in their career:
    1) Golden Tate who Carson only played 4 games with
    2) Torrey Smith, who was 5 years from his only 1000 yard season when he joined the Eagles
    3) Alshon Jeffery, who has been playing mostly hurt since joining in 2017.

Games against top tough opponents:

Vs 10+ win teams

Since 2016, Carson Wentz has the 2nd most wins against 10+ win teams (Steelers, Falcons, Giants, and Cowboys in 2016, Panthers and Rams in 2017, Colts in 2018, Packers and Bills in 2019).

  • Tom Brady – 11
  • Carson Wentz – 9
  • Russell Wilson – 9
  • Jared Goff – 8
  • Drew Brees – 7

As this doesn’t account losses (and amount of games played), looking at in win/loss percentages, Wentz is 4th.

Vs top defenses, DVOA

Popular metrics used to assess the strength of a defense include passing yards allowed, passer rating, and DVOA.

DVOA is a metric used by footballoutsiders it measures: “a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent”.

In career games against top 10 DVOA defenses, Carson Wentz ranks 5th in passer rating among active QBs with min. 10 games:

  1. Patrick Mahomes, 10 games – 99.0
  2. Russell Wilson, 53 games – 96.6
  3. Aaron Rodgers, 58 games – 95.7
  4. Tom Brady, 101 games – 93.0
  5. Carson Wentz, 19 games – 90.7

Looking at strength of the pass defense only (ignoring the performance vs run), Carson Wentz ties the 4th highest career passer rating with no minimum games:

  • Patrick Mahomes, 11 games – 105.2
  • Aaron Rodgers, 58 games – 95.7
  • Lamar Jackson, 8 games – 92.9
  • Carson Wentz, 16 games – 92.5
  • Tom Brady, 101 games – 92.5
  • Russell Wilson, 53 games – 92.3

If we limit the years to performances vs top 10 pass DVOA teams since 2016, Carson Wentz has the 3rd highest passer rating:

  1. Drew Brees, 16 games – 104.5
  2. Tom Brady, 16 games – 93.7
  3. Carson Wentz, 16 games – 92.5
  4. Aaron Rodgers, 19 games – 92.4
  5. Matt Ryan, 16 games – 92.3
  6. Russell Wilson, 26 games – 92.1

Additionally, Carson Wentz has the 2nd highest win % vs top 10 pass defenses (11-5, 69 %), topped only by Tom Brady (14-3, 82 %).

Taking it a step further and limiting it to games since 2017 when Carson Wentz really took off:

  1. Patrick Mahomes, 11 games – 105.2
  2. Carson Wentz, 12 games – 104.1
  3. Tom Brady, 14 games – 93.6
  4. Russell Wilson, 22 games – 93.3
  5. Aaron Rodgers, 17 games -90.0

Carson has the 3rd highest win % with 9-3 record and 75 % (trailing Mahomes 10-1, 91 % and Tom Brady 11-3, 79 %).

Vs top defenses, rating and yards allowed

We can change the metrics – but the overall stat indications don’t change.

In career games vs defenses allowing the top 10 lowest passer ratings, Carson Wentz has the 7th highest passer rating (minimum 10 games):

  1. Patrick Mahomes, 10 games – 102.4
  2. Aaron Rodgers, 52 games – 95.5
  3. Russell Wilson, 38 games – 92.4
  4. Tom Brady, 95 games – 91.8
  5. Deshaun Watson, 13 games – 91.1
  6. Drew Brees, 76 games – 90.5
  7. Carson Wentz, 21 games – 89.7

In career games vs defenses allowing top 10 lowest yards/game, Carson Wentz ranks 7th as well with a passer rating of 92.3, trailing the same QBs as mentioned above.

Key downs:

Redzone:

Since 2016, Wentz has attempted 153 passes in the redzone. The stats are quite impressive.

Carson has thrown 72 TDs and 2 INTs, resulting in an absurd 36 TD/INT ratio. No other QB in the NFL that has thrown over 52 TDs has thrown 2 or fewer INTs.

Only 5 QBs have thrown more TDs:

  1. Drew Brees (84 TDs, 5 INTs)
  2. Tom Brady (77 TDs, 4 INTs)
  3. Aaron Rodgers (75 TDs, 3 INTs)
  4. Matt Ryan (81 TDs, 6 INTs)
  5. Russell Wilson (85 TDs, 4 INTs)

In terms of passer rating, Carson Wentz is 6th among QBs (min 75 attempts). The attempts, of course, skew the result, as Luck (104), Lamar (47), and Mahomes (95) have way fewer attempts:

  1. Andrew Luck – 112.6
  2. Drew Brees – 110.3
  3. Lamar Jackson – 106.7
  4. Patrick Mahomes – 105.1
  5. Tom Brady – 102.7
  6. Carson Wentz – 101.7

Looking at it since 2017, Carson Wentz has 111 pass attempts in the redzone.

He has thrown the 3rd most TDs with 60, and only 1 INT.

  1. Russell Wilson – 70 TDs, 4 INTs
  2. Jared Goff – 64 TDs, 2 INTs
  3. Carson Wentz – 60 TDs, 1 INT

Carson Wentz is the only QB that has thrown 50 passes and only have 1 INT or less.

In terms of passer rating, it gets super impressive. Carson is 2nd behind only Drew Brees.

  1. Drew Brees – 113.3
  2. Carson Wentz – 107.9
  3. Lamar Jackson – 106.7
  4. Patrick Mahomes – 105.1

3rd down:

Since 2016, Carson Wentz has converted the 5th most percentages of 3rd down faced (min 275 downs), despite facing the most 3rd downs:

  1. Patrick Mahomes, 287 plays – 47.4 %
  2. Jameis Winston, 603 plays – 43.6 %
  3. Ben Roethlisburger, 501 plays – 43.1 %
  4. Andrew Luck, 347 plays – 42.5 %
  5. Carson Wentz, 637 plays – 42.2 %
  6. Drew Brees, 560 plays – 42.1 %

Both Patrick Mahomes and Carson Wentz use their legs a good amount to convert 3rd downs (mostly on sneak plays), which is evident as Mahomes converted 69.6 % with his feet, which was 63.6 % for Wentz.

Turnover ratios:

Since entering the league in 2016, Carson has been one of best QBs in terms of not throwing interceptions – in the history of the league.

Per “The Football Database” and “ProSportsReference”, Carson Wentz has thrown 2.055 passes, with 97 TDs and 35 INTs.

That gives him the 2nd lowest INT percentage of all QBs in NFL history with 1.70 %, trailing only Aaron Rodgers with 1.39 %.

Combine that with a TD percentage of 4.72, which ranks 9th among active QBs:

  1. Russell Wilson – 6.01
  2. Aaron Rodgers – 6.01
  3. Tom Brady – 5.42
  4. Drew Brees – 5.38
  5. Phillip Rivers – 5.23
  6. Ben Roethlisburger – 5.02
  7. Kirk Cousins – 4.93
  8. Jameis Winston – 4.75
  9. Carson Wentz – 4.72

Looking at TD/INT ratios since 2016 against top 10 pass DVOA defenses, Wentz ranks 6th with 2.50:

  1. Aaron Rodgers, 19 games – 4.5
  2. Patrick Mahomes, 11 games – 3.8
  3. Lamar Jackson, 8 games – 3.0
  4. Drew Brees, 16 games – 2.9
  5. Russell Wilson, 26 games – 2.6
  6. Carson Wentz, 16 games – 2.5

Taking a step further to 2017 when Carson popped off, the TD/INT shoots up to 4.7, ranking 3rd behind very good company:

  1. Drew Brees, 9 games – 6.0
  2. Aaron Rodgers, 14 games – 5.33
  3. Carson Wentz, 12 games – 4.7
  4. Patrick Mahomes, 11 games – 3.8
  5. Lamar Jackson, 8 games – 3.0

PFF grades in first three years

Not the greatest stat, but simply adds to the story. PFF have their flaws in terms of criticism of partially subjective judgement of “win” reps.

Of all QBs in their first 3 seasons in the NFL, they have Carson Wentz ranked as the 4th best QB:

  1. Patrick Mahomes – 93.7
  2. Russell Wilson – 89.9
  3. Deshaun Watson – 84.2
  4. Carson Wentz – 82.4

Take PFF grades with a grain of salt, but their opinions are not for nothing. After all, their stats are advanced in the definition that they aren’t “raw”.

Acknowledgement

Credit to PFF, The Football Database, ProSportsReference, and my man Max (on twitter @max_dfl), who does a phenomenal job putting together advanced QB stats.

Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

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