Eagle eye analytics week 3: Who has the statistical edge in Eagles home opener?

USATSI_10288438_168382939_lowres

The Eagles are just one day away from their home opener, hosting the New York Giants in a week three clash. The Birds’ have a chance to climb atop the NFC East with a win, but are they poised to do so against a struggling Giants team? Here’s what the numbers say.

 

Key Terms:

Efficiency = Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA): This is a method of evaluating a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. You can read more about it here:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early (DAVE): This is a rating that combines game results through the current week, with projections that give us a better prediction of how teams will rank at the end of the year.

Key Storyline

The Eagles’ field a defense with a pressure % of 40.7%. That’s good for 4th in the league. Going up against the Giants’ struggling O-line should make for a nice 1:00 o’clock lunch.

So far, C Richburg, and RG Jerry have earned decent grades through the first two weeks on the interior of the Giants’ line, however, they haven’t faced a duo like Jernigan/Cox. How this O-line holds up against the Eagles’ pass rush will be the storyline of the game.

Brandon Graham is starting the 2017 season right where he left off…meaning that the Eagles pass rush could be setting themselves up for a three course meal.

 

Speaking of O-lines…

We’ve been hearing all week that Isaac Seumalo is out, and Chance Warmack is in. Listening to the coaching staff during interviews, they have yet to publicly demote Seumalo. However, the narrative in the locker room seems to be that Warmack is in. Seumalo has given up four sacks in the first two games, which is simply unacceptable. While the future could still be bright for the young, versatile lineman, the Birds might be better off riding with the big bruiser, Warmack, at LG.

 

Ertz Still Going Strong

Jordan Matthews who? With the combination of mostly Agholor and Ertz in the slot, the Eagles have seamlessly transitioned into life without Jordan Matthews. Ertz is just so versatile in this offense. Not only is he lining up all over the formation, he is making plays all over the field. His 82.9 grade through the first two weeks of 2017 is good for 6th best among all TE’s. Though Philly hopes to get the run game going a little more, while also spreading the ball to their outside WRs, there is no reason to think Ertz won’t continue to be Carson Wentz’ favorite target.

 

Who Steps Up in the Secondary?

I think it’s safe to say we will see some more of Rasul Douglas after the performance he had last week, earning the top Eagles’ game grade.

Another interesting development, could be the injection of Chris Maragos into the secondary. Known mostly as a special teams ace, Maragos did play 307 defensive snaps back in 2015. He hasn’t, however, played a defensive snap since. It will be interesting to see the veteran, should he get the chance to contribute on defense.

Finally, PFF’s expert picks for week three. This will surely bring a smile to the faces of Eagles’ fans, with all nine analysts picking Philly to win their home opener.

PFF’s Eagles’ Projected Record: 2-1

Eagles’ Current Record: 1-1

 

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

More from our Sister Sites