Eagles Mailbag: How realistic is Saquon Barkley’s case for MVP?

Eagles Saquon Barkley
Nov 24, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back Kenneth Gainwell (14) celebrates his touchdown scored against the Los Angeles Rams with running back Saquon Barkley (26) during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The Philadelphia Eagles are now on a seven-game winning streak, as they remain one of the hottest teams in the NFL. They’ll look to continue that hot streak against the Baltimore Ravens, who are regarded as one of the best teams in the entire league.

In the latest edition of my Eagles mailbag, I’ll discuss Philadelphia’s upcoming matchup against the Ravens, Saquon Barkley’s case for MVP, and much more regarding the team moving forward.

@BSP_Sully asked, “Win or lose, what do you want to see from the Eagles Sunday to prove they’re the top contender? Baltimore has one of the best-run defenses in the league, how do you think Saquon will do against it?”

It feels like each week, we’re saying that this is Philadelphia’s “toughest test” of the regular season. But the Eagles truly won’t play a better team than the Baltimore Ravens in the regular season.

The Ravens rank among the league’s best in several statistical categories and likely have the most complete offense in the NFL. Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP-caliber level once again and he’ll test Philadelphia both in the air and on the ground.

Bengals vs ravens eagles
Nov 3, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Josh Johnson (17) leads the offense during the fourth quarter touchdown against the Denver Broncos at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

If the Eagles want to prove that they’re a legitimate Super Bowl contender, they’ll need to defeat the Ravens. Baltimore already has four losses this season so they’re certainly beatable.

It would be encouraging to see Jalen Hurts and Philadelphia’s passing offense find success against the Ravens. Baltimore allows the second-most passing yards per game in 2024. Therefore, this could be a “get right” game for Hurts and Philadelphia’s aerial attack.

Although it’s worth mentioning that Baltimore has the league’s second-best run defense. Regardless of the Ravens’ success against the run, Philadelphia needs to make Baltimore prove that they can stop Saquon Barkley.

The Eagles have bested top rushing defenses before during Nick Sirianni’s tenure as head coach and that trend could continue in Week 13. Philadelphia needs to lean on Barkley, regardless of their success on the ground early in the game.

@CBabosWrites asked, “How many yards does Saquon need to be the first RB MVP since 2012? Do you think the frequency of Hurts TD runs impacts Barkley’s candidacy?”

Since 2000, four running backs have won the NFL MVP award. As you mentioned, Adrian Peterson won the award most recently in 2012.

Here are the stats of all four running backs that have won the award since 2000:

Marshall Faulk (2000): 253 carries for 1,359 rushing yards and 18 rushing TDs, 81 receptions for 830 receiving yards and 8 receiving TDs

Shaun Alexander (2005): 370 carries for 1,880 rushing yards and 27 rushing TDs, 15 receptions for 78 receiving yards and one receiving TD

LaDainian Tomlinson (2006): 348 carries for 1,815 rushing yards and 28 rushing TDs, 56 receptions for 508 receiving yards and three receiving TDs

Adrian Peterson (2012): 348 carries for 2,097 rushing yards and 12 rushing TDs, 40 receptions for 217 receiving yards and one receiving TD

Eagles
Nov 24, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (26) reacts after getting first down against the Los Angeles Rams during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

Given Saquon Barkley’s current pace, he is actually on pace to outperform all four previous MVP winners at running back in rushing yards. Here’s what Barkley is on pace to finish the regular season with:

Saquon Barkley (2024): 345 carries for 2,151 rushing yards and 15 rushing TDs, 42 receptions for 397 receiving yards and three receiving TDs

Therefore, Barkley is on pace to outperform Peterson’s MVP campaign from 2012 in every statistical category. Regardless of Jalen Hurts stealing Barkley’s rushing touchdowns near the goal line, Barkley should still have enough production to make a legitimate case to win MVP this season.

@richie60193 asked, “What are the chances Barkley breaks the all time rushing record and do you think he will be NFL MVP”

Barkley is currently on pace to break the NFL’s all-time single-season rushing record. If Barkley truly reaches his projected rushing yard total of 2,151 yards, it would be hard to keep him out of the MVP race.

Yet given the NFL’s favoritism towards quarterback candidates in recent years, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen will likely remain the front runners to win the award this season.

While it shouldn’t matter, we could see the final record of the Eagles, Ravens, and Bills factor into which player ultimately wins MVP. If Philadelphia finishes as the first seed in the NFC, Barkley should win the award as the key cog on the Eagles’ offense.

@Michael93826345 asked, “How has Jalyx Hunt looked? Plus what are some extensions looking like price wise for Milton Williams, Baun and Becton and possibly Rodgers?”

Jalyx Hunt has played just 66 defensive snaps this season, totaling two pressures as a pass rusher. Therefore, it’s a bit difficult to truly judge his performance thus far. Yet he should receive a much bigger workload moving forward given the absence of both Brandon Graham and Bryce Huff.

Last offseason, the Eagles didn’t have many free agents that it felt like Philadelphia needed to re-sign. That will certainly change in 2025, as several key starters are slated to hit the open market.

While I don’t expect the Eagles to sign all four players that you mentioned, here’s what I would project they would each receive in free agency based on recent signings of comparable players at their positions:

Milton Williams: three-year, $45.75 million with $32.5 million fully guaranteed

Zack Baun: three-year, $37.5 million with $20 million fully guaranteed

Mekhi Becton: four-year, $44 million with $30 million fully guaranteed

Isaiah Rodgers: three-year, $18 million with $6.5 million fully guaranteed

@CMPXMV asked, “Assuming Bradberry never gets activated, what are the cap implications for his contract? Do we save any money?”

Despite remaining on injured reserve, James Bradberry still counts towards Philadelphia’s salary cap. If Bradberry somehow landed on the commissioner’s exempt list instead of injured reserve, then the Eagles would potentially be able to save money against their salary cap. Yet that isn’t the case.

Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images