Now into the final move of regular season action, the impact of every game can be felt by the Philadelphia Phillies.
Nick Castellanos’ clutch 3-RBI day to secure the Phillies’ 3-2 victory over the Atlanta Braves on Sunday night certainly had an impact. With the extra-inning victory over their National League East rival, the Phils have regained a 7.0 game lead for first place in the division.
With 25 games to go, the Phillies (81-56) stand with a magic number of 19 to claim the NL East title and end the Braves (74-63) bid for a seventh straight title themselves.
As a refresher, the magic number drops by one every time the Phillies win or the Braves lose. So, any combination of wins or Braves losses that equal 19 will clinch the NL East title for the Phillies. The odds are very much in the Phillies’ favor of this happening, with Fangraphs currently giving the Phillies a 95.9% chance of winning the division.
The Phillies Homestretch
Over the final 25 games, the Phillies will be on the road for 16 of them and at home for only 9. First Philly will begin a six-game road trip on Tuesday with two games in Toronto followed by four in Miami with both teams sitting at the bottom of their respective divisions. Then, they return home for three games each against the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Mets. In all likelihood, the Rays will be eliminated from playoff contention at that point with the Mets battling for the final NL Wild Card spot.
They will then hit the road for six games, three against the presumptive NL Central champion Milwaukee Brewers, and three against the Mets, before returning home for their final regular season home series against the Chicago Cubs. To conclude the 2024 season, the Phillies will then travel to the Nation’s Capital for a three-game series against the Washington Nationals.
Over their final 25 games, the Phillies have a combined strength of schedule of .493 with the Braves sitting at a .483 strength of schedule. If both teams played exactly to that strength of schedule statistic, then both teams would go 13-12 over their respective 25-game sets, giving the Phils the NL East at 94-68. Should the Phillies only play to that record, however, the Braves would need to go 20-5 to catch the Phillies at 94-68 and claim the division with the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Given, however, that four of the Braves games are against the Los Angeles Dodgers, it is unlikely the Braves could muster such a strong record in the final 25. Knowing that such blowups have happened in past years, it would take the Phillies going on a horrific cold streak for them to lose out on the NL East title.
What About Home Field Advantage?
With six spots in the NL side of the playoffs, the Phillies will be battling against the other two division leaders, the Brewers, and Dodgers, for one of the top two slots that include a bye for the Wild Card Series.
Currently, the Dodgers, having played one more game than the Phillies, have a narrow lead for the top spot in the National League with a record of 83-55. The Phillies then sit right behind the Dodgers in the number two slot with the Brewers (81-57) sitting 0.5 games behind them.
In other words, it’s going to be a tight battle to the end for the top two slots.
The Dodgers own the easiest schedule remaining of the three with the Guardians, Padres, and Braves being the highlights of their remaining schedule. The Brewers, on the flip side, have the hardest schedule remaining, facing the Fightins for three of those games while having seven left to play against the defending World Series Champions, the Arizona Diamondbacks, who currently own the first Wild Card slot.
While catching the Dodgers is not out of the question, the Phillies have a bit more control over the Brewers, not only due to the 0.5-game lead but also due to the three remaining games against them. If the Phillies win one of those three games, they clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker if needed. However, if they can take two of three or even sweep the series in Milwaukee, they will add some distance between them and the Brew Crew. Regardless, the two slots for home-field advantage in the NL just might come down to the final weekend of play this year.
Prediction for the final 25
The Phillies have just finished a stretch of nine games against playoff-caliber teams in the Braves, Astros, and Royals. In that stretch, excluding the two starts made by Taijuan Walker, who has since been relegated to the bullpen, they went 7-1. There are still some question marks remaining as the offense remains relatively cold, but the team’s top four starting pitchers have kept them in ballgames recently regardless of what the offense is producing.
Sitting at 81 wins on the season, the Fightins are 19 wins away from their first 100-win season since 2011. While it’s unlikely the club will reach that milestone this season (though still very much possible), I believe they will end this season with a record of 98-64, good enough to earn the No. 2 seed in the National League and a bye for the NL Wild Card Series.
No longer the underdog, the Phillies will have their work cut out for them in the postseason, but will at least begin with home-field advantage through the Division Series.
Photo Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
