Phillies Mid-Season Review: 81 down, 81 to go

“The guys truly believe that we have a great chance to win a World Championship here.”

Manager Rob Thomson to Taryn Hatcher (NBC Sports Philadelphia)

As the Philadelphia Phillies roster descended upon Clearwater, Fla. to begin the 2024 calendar, expectations were set high. After two straight seasons of reaching the National League Championship, including the team’s first World Series appearance since 2009, manager Rob Thomson and players alike made it clear that the Phillies had a lot of unfinished business to attend to. Now, 81 games into the season, the official halfway point of the regular season, how are the Phillies stacking up to the competition?

Looking at the Big Picture

With a record of 53-28, the Phillies not only own the best record in the National League, but all of Major League Baseball. Zeroing in on the NL, the Phillies own a 2.5 game lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers for the top spot in the league and an 8.0 game lead on the Atlanta Braves for the National League East.

Early season discussion about the Phillies’ strength of schedule has seemed to quiet as well as the Phillies own a 19-11 record against teams with a record over .500 on the year.

Meanwhile, home field advantage has been a very real commodity for the Phillies in 2024. Averaging 40,625 strong the third-highest in baseball, Phillies faithful have been pouring into Citizens Bank Park night after night to support their Fightin’ Phils to the point where day games in late May were sell-outs. Their home record of 31-13 just goes to show what it means to the team to know that the fans are behind them.

Top Performers on Both Sides of the Ball – The Mound

That is the Phillies’s run differential through 81 games. The Phillies lare second in all of Major League Baseball in run differential behind the Dodgers who have played one more game. They also rank among the top four in both runs scored and runs against on the season.

Dating back just a few seasons, the conversation surrounding the Phillies’ pitching staff either focused on how starting pitchers were not allowed to pitch deep into games or how the Phillies’ bullpen was amongst the worse in the league. Nowadays, neither concerns are even in the conversation. Combined, Phillies pitchers have allowed a league-best 290 runs on the season.

That success begins with the starting rotation for the Phillies, which has combined to throw for a 2.96 ERA on the year to lead all of baseball while pitching the second-most innings at 477.2.

That type of success from Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola has become a bit of a given for the Phillies while Ranger Suarez has certainly come into his own as a top starting pitcher this season. Cristopher Sanchez, meanwhile, has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, really coming into his own enough to earn a contract extension to avoid arbitration talks for years to come. Even the fifth slot of the rotation, whether it be Taijuan Walker or Spencer Turnbull, has pitched well enough to keep the Phillies in the ball game, which at the end of the day is what you want from the bottom of your rotation.

With the rotation taking the brunt of the innings thus far, the Phillies’ bullpen has remained among the most rested in the league, having only been called upon for 252.1 innings. When called upon, the bullpen has pitched for the fifth-best ERA in baseball at 3.42. If not by name, Jose Alvarado has served as de facto closer, earning 12 saves on the season while also being used in several other high-leverage situations. Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, and Orion Kerkering have all pitched well in high-leverage spots as well out of the ‘pen for the Phillies.

The Phillies Offense

Despite a relative cold stretch as of late, the Phillies’ offense still ranks among the top five in baseball across just about every category. No wonder they could have up to seven position players representing them in the MLB All-Star Game this season.

Bryce Harper has already locked in his starting position at first base for the All-Star Game, having earned over three million votes in the first round of All-Star voting. Since May 1, Harper has recorded 14 home runs and 29 extra base hits overall, walking 29 times as well while batting in 40 runners. The first baseman earned NL Player of the Month honors for May and has put up quite an argument to earn the honor again for the month of June.

Potentially joining Harper in Texas at the All-Star Game is, well, just about every other starter. Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, and J.T. Realmuto have all advanced to the second round of voting for the All-Star Game, and rightfully so.

Each player has demonstrated their offensive prowess at one point or another this season, covering for each other and keeping the offense going as opposing pitchers simply cannot keep each of them shut down simultaneously.

Alec Bohm in particular has really come into his own this season, leading the league in doubles and hitting for a .301 average on the year. The third baseman has found himself a mainstay in the four-hole, directly behind Harper in the lineup. Batting cleanup not only has allowed Bohm to lead the National League in RBI thus far, but also utilizes him to protect Harper at the plate, guaranteeing that opposing pitchers cannot simply pitch around Harper at the threat of being punished against Bohm.

Threats, Things to Watch Out for in the Second Half

81 games into the season and the one biggest question mark to remain for the Phillies is the outfield. The Phillies attempted to fill center field with Johan Rojas who has since been demoted to Lehigh Valley (AAA). Brandon Marsh earns a start most days but is still not fully trusted against left-handers, meaning left and center field has become a bit of a platoon between Marsh, Cristian Pache, Whit Merrifield, and David Dahl.

The Phillies need to find a more consistent alignment to their outfield, and just may look to the trade market to make such a change, potentially going after a player like Luis Robert Jr., Kyle Tucker, or Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Additionally, injury management has become an issue for the Phillies as of late. Currently, J.T. Realmuto, Taijuan Walker, Spencer Turnbull, and Kody Clemens are all on hte Injured List with various injuries. They may be joined by a big pair of names today as well as both Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper exited Thursday night’s game against the Marlins with respective groin and hamstring injuries.

The Phillies have done well so far to manage injuries with a “next-man-up” philosophy, but if they lose another player or two to injury, they may not be able to maintain their strong lead in the NL East for much longer. As we enter the dog days of the summer, it will be important for Thomson to manage his team well, ensuring that everyone is getting the rest they need to stay healthy deep into October.

Perhaps one of the most important challenges in the second half will come from their remaining schedule against the Atlanta Braves. The Phillies have not seen the Braves since the start of the season, and their ten games against the Braves, beginning July 5, could decide the fate of the NL East well-before the end of the season. In fact, the Phillies and Braves play each other 10 times from July 5 to September 1.

If the Phillies can win a majority of those contests and stay at-pace with the Braves the rest of the season, then the Phillies would have the NL East all but wrapped up by the time the calendar turned to September.

One Series at a Time

In order to take the NL East, let alone the World Series, the Phillies need to remain in the moment as of now. They own a 16-4-4 series record on the season and need to continue focusing on that record moving forward. Every series victory brings the Phillies one step closer to the postseason and keeps them in the proper mindset needed to win it all in Red October: defeating one opponent at a time.

Photo Credit: (AP Photo/Chris Szagola)