Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United: Betting preview, predictions & odds

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Union
Mandatory Credit: Philadelphia Union

Have you heard? Your Philadelphia Union are the only unbeaten team in Major League Soccer through Matchday 8 – feels pretty good to say, right? Daniel Gazdag’s 90th minute winner in the Music City last weekend gives DOOP fans the right to boast about their club’s early-season form for another week, but a difficult test down South awaits them this weekend.

Will Atlanta United – one of Major League Soccer’s best teams at home – put a stop to Union’s unbeaten run to start the season? Or will DOOP dig deep to keep their streak going on the road?

How to watch Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United:

Where To Watch:
2:30pm EST Kickoff
-FREE on MLS Season Pass vis Apple TV
-FOX

Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United: Betting information

Atlanta +115 | Draw +265 | Philadelphia +195

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History

Sunday’s showdown will mark the 16th meeting between Atlanta United and Philadelphia Union. Union and Atlanta have split the games played between them up to this point, with each team coming into this match holding an identical record of 5W-5L-5D. While Union have just 1 loss in it’s previous 8 meetings between the 2 Eastern Conference contenders, they’ve managed to win at Mercedes Benz Stadium just 1 time ever across 8 visits – A 3-0 win in the 2021 edition of the CONCACAF Champions Cup.

Union, MLS
Mandatory Credit: Philadelphia Union

In Union’s 8 total games at The Benz, they’ve suffered a record of 1W-4L-3D, and have been outscored by a total of 13 to 7. But in Union and Atalanta’s previous 5 matches, they hold the advantage with a record of 3W-1L-1D, outscoring Atlanta by a total of 8-5.

Atlanta’s Season So Far

Gonzalo Pineda’s Atlanta United come into this match with a record of 3W-2L-1D for a total of 10 points, putting them in 6th place in the East before this weekends’ matches kicked off. While Atlanta have struggled on the road so far this season with a record of just 0W-2L-1D for 1 point, they currently stand as one of Major League Soccer’s best home sides, with a perfect record of 3-0-0.

Offensively Atlanta United are getting the job done early in 2024, even with a slow start from Thiago Almada. Their 10 goals through 6 games gives them an average of 1.67 goals scored per 90 minutes, the 4th best total in all of Major League Soccer through Matchday 8.

Much of that can be attributed to the form of Greek forward Giorgos Giakoumakis, netting 5 goals in 4 games. 31 year old Jamal Thiare has chipped in 3 goals for Atlanta this season, all of which coming in the previous 2 games. Thiago Almada and Saba Lobzhanidze have 1 goal each for The A.

It’s not just Atlanta’s offense that’s impressing in the early days of the season, though. Just 5 goals allowed through 6 games is tied for the lowest Goals Allowed total in MLS. Atlanta has only allowed 26 shots on Target Against through 6 games and are being protected by a 39 year old Brad Guzan, currently bolstering the 2nd best Save Percentage in MLS – 84.6%. Through their first 6 games of the season, Atlanta have kept 2 Clean Sheets, and have allowed more than 1 goal on just one occasion – a 2-0 loss on the road to Toronto FC.

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Union’s Season So Far

Gazdag’s 90th minute winner against Nashville last weekend maintained Union as Major League Soccer’s only unbeaten team to start the 2024 season, and notched their 3rd win in a row.

A record of 3W-0L-3D in their first 6 games is good enough to have them within striking distance of the Supporters Shield lead with a game in hand, something that feels impressive when you consider how bad teams competing in CONCACAF Champions Cup typically start the MLS season.

Coming into the weekend, Union’s 12 goals through 6 games and 1.81 Goals per 90 Minutes puts them amongst Major League Soccer’s most potent teams in the early days of the season, despite averaging just 44.2% of possession, the 4th lowest total in the league.

Union
Mandatory Credit: Philadelphia Union

Much of that can be attributed to Union’s success from set-pieces this season, netting 5 in 6 games from Free Kicks and Corners – tied with Sporting Kansas City for the League lead. It’s the front 3 for Union putting up the offensive numbers early on in 2024. Julian Carranza and Daniel Gazdag lead the team with 4 goals each, followed by Mikael Uhre’s 2 goals and 1 assists. Quinn Sullivan and Ale Bedoya each have 1 goal for Union as well. Carranza is the hot hand in Union’s lineup, scoring 4 goals in his previous 3 games.

While I’m sure Jim Curtin would like to see the defense improve, Union are off to a pretty solid start behind the ball to start the MLS season. 7 goals conceded through 6 games is tied for the 3rd lowest total in Major League Soccer, and their 7.6 Expected Goals allowed is 9th best across all teams. While Union have just 1 Clean Sheet through 6 games this season, they’ve allowed 1 goal or less in 4 of 6 games.

Status Report

Atlanta United
OUT – Giorgos Giakoumakis (knee)
OUT – Stian Gregersen (knee)
OUT – Xande Silva (adductor)
OUT – Jamal Thiare (hamstring)
OUT – Derrick Williams (calf)

Philadelphia Union
OUT – Leon Flach (shoulder)
OUT – Isaiah LeFlore (knee)
OUT – Holden Trent (finger)

Lineup Prediction

Knowing that Jim Curtin’s best XI is available for Sunday afternoon, I’d be a bit surprised to see Curtin sway from that on the road against Atlanta. I’m looking for Union to come out in their 4-4-2 diamond on Sunday Afternoon with the following names making up the XI:

GK: Andre Blake
RB: Nathan Harriel, CB: Jack Elliott, CB: Jakob Glesnes, LB: Kai Wagner
CDM: Jose Martinez
RCM: Quinn Sullivan, LCM: Jack McGlynn
CAM: Daniel Gazdag
ST: Julian Carranza, ST: Mikael Uhre

Score Predictions

This is undoubtedly a tough test for the Blue and Gold, maybe the biggest of the MLS season thus far. Walking into The Benz and leaving with points against a strong Atlanta United team in one of the best atmosphere’s in Major League Soccer is something no visiting team has accomplished yet this season, but Union are building confidence and a never-say-die mentality – and of course they’ll want to end the weekend still standing as Major League Soccer’s only unbeaten team.

Union MLS
Mandatory Credit: Philadelphia Union

Union might have caught Atlanta at an opportune time though, with the home side missing big players in striker Giorgos Giakoumakis and defender Derrick Williams. The absence of Jamal Thiare will also be a big miss for Atlanta, scoring 3 goals in his previous 2 games. The injuries mean Atlanta will have to move around a number of players in their starting XI, which gives me hope that Union can handle a normally dangerous attack a little easier. Of course, Thiago Alameda is the type of guy that could change the game within an instant, so Union to do well to keep their focus on limiting Alameda’s influence on the game.

I just can’t pick against this team right now. Even when they go down early (4 of 6 games), they’re able to claw their way back into the game, scoring late-game equalizers or winners in 4 of 6 as well. I think we’re going to see another come-from-behind performance on Sunday afternoon, with Union and Atlanta playing to a 1-1 draw and Union stay as Major League Soccer’s only unbeaten team for another week.

The most likely goalscorer to me is Julian Carranza, looking to net his 5th goal in 4 games.

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Mandatory Credit: Philadelphia Union