Purdue vs UConn: NCAA Championship betting preview & predictions

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Ncaa championship
UConn forward Samson Johnson celebrates a basket during the second half of the NCAA college basketball game against Alabama at the Final Four, Saturday, April 6, 2024, in Glendale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson )

And then there were two. The NCAA Championship will be decided on Monday night when Purdue and UConn meet in the finale of the NCAA Tournament in what promises to be a real spectacle. Can the Huskies successfully defend their crown and become the first team to go back-to-back since the 2008 Florida Gators?

Purdue vs UConn: NCAA Championship game information

Who: Purdue vs UConn
When: April 8th, 9:20PM EST
Where: State Farm Satadium, Arizona
Watch: TNT/TBS

Purdue vs UConn: NCAA Championship betting information

Spread: Purdue +6 | UConn -6
Moneyline: Purdue +225 | UConn -278
Total: Over/Under 146

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North Carolina State vs Purdue: NCAA Championship Betting preview

Purdue

Purdue’s run through the NCAA Tournament has been dominant. The Boilermakers made light work of North Carolina State, as expected, and now finds themself in a clash of #1 seeds in the fina, the teams’ first since 1969.

Led by Zach Edey, the team has funnelled nearly everything through its lethal center, who is averaging 28.2 points per game over his last 10, along with 13 rebounds and 2.8 assists. UConn will need to find a way to keep Edey quiet and away from the charity stripe if they are to successfully defend their crown. That task will fall largely on the shoulders of 7’2 C, Donovan Clingan. For Edey, trying to get him into foul trouble early simply has to be the motive. If they can force a more conservative approach defensively, the floodgates will open for the breakout star.

The supporting cast behind Edey has been strong, but it’s not like there are a wave of options if Edey ends up struggling against UConn. The teams’ leading scorer behind Edey, Braden Smith, is only averaging 8.4 points per game and has been inconsistent from beyond the arc this tournament. He’s not the only one, and the struggles from range almost led to a loss to Tennessee and have showed holes in the armor that UConn are destined to target.

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Purdue center Zach Edey (15) reacts near Tennessee guard Dalton Knecht (3) after the team defeated Tennessee in an Elite Eight college basketball game in the NCAA Tournament, Sunday, March 31, 2024, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

UConn

UConn’s road to a back-to-back National Championship has one last hurdle. The Huskies have dismantled every team that has stood in front of them, with the Alabama Crimson Tide being the most recent victims, falling to a 86-72 defeat in their Final Four bout.

Stephon Castle and Donovan Clingan were at their very best against Alabama and will need to be again if they are to counter immovable object Zach Edey. Tristen Newton’s selfless play has opened up the UConn offense massively through the month of March, and his vision will really be relied upon to spread the ball and keep Purdue off-guard.

Entering the tournament as one seed is one thing, but being as dominant as UConn have is another task entirely. They’ve been able to find new ways to win each game with everyone getting a slice of the Pie and that might prove too much for Purdue to handle.

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UConn guard Stephon Castle (5) dunks over Alabama forward Grant Nelson (2) during the second half of the NCAA college basketball game at the Final Four, Saturday, April 6, 2024, in Glendale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
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Purdue vs UConn: NCAA Championship Betting prediction

This is a large spread and these are the two top teams duking it out. I think the safer play here is to back the total in a game where fouls will be aplenty to try and stop Zach Edey, and emotions will be running high. This should prompt a higher tempo and give us a chance at cashing the over.

AP Photo/Brynn Anderson