Braves vs. Phillies: ‘It’s like rain on Opening Day, now the Phillies play on Friday.’ – Alanis Morissette.
Following a bit of a weather road bump, the Philadelphia Phillies are opening 2024 against the team whose season they ended last year—the Atlanta Braves.
In arguably the most anticipated Phillies season of the last decade, the team will need to power past the NL East Division favorites to start things off.
And the kickoff to any MLB campaign is a fantastic time to make money. You could even recover from another poor March Madness effort, so without further ado, the time has come. Phillies baseball is back.
Braves vs Phillies game info
- Location: Citizens Bank Park – Philadelphia, PA
- Time: March 29th, 3:05p EST
- Channel: NBC 10 | Bally Sports South
Braves vs. Phillies Betting Stats:
| BOOK | MONEYLINE | SPREAD | O/U RUNS |
| FANDUEL | BRAVES (-130), PHILLIES (+110) | BRAVES -1.5 (+130) | 7.5 |
| DRAFTKINGS | BRAVES (-110), PHILLIES (+105) | BRAVES -1.5 (+136) | 7.5 |
Braves vs Phillies: Pitching Matchup
Spencer Strider (0-0, 0.00 ERA) v. Zack Wheeler (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Spencer Strider‘s splits against the Fightins are discouraging if you’re from Philadelphia. In eight regular-season appearances, Strider’s a perfect 8-0 with a 1.90 ERA across 47 & 1/3 innings.
In fact, the Phils are single-handedly responsible for 25% of Strider’s career wins. That’s the bad news.
But for all that regular season success, Strider’s never been able to deal with the Phillies in the playoffs. In three total postseason starts, all against the Phils, Strider’s allowed five homers with just one line (7.0 innings pitched, two runs (one earned), and eight K’s) that’s worth mentioning on his behalf. This one’s hard to forget.
What has remained consistent has been the strikeouts. 13.7 SO/9 isn’t a good omen for the Phillies, and Strider has recorded at least seven strikeouts in his last three starts against them.
Best Bet Verdict: clever Las Vegas has set Strider o/u on strikeouts at 7.5. While I like the over there, I’m more comfortable tucking 7+ K’s into an SGP for enhanced odds.
Fresh off his three-year, $126MM extension, Zack Wheeler will take the mound, effectively ending Aaron Nola‘s six-year streak as Opening Day starter.
As a life-long NL Easter (happy Good Friday, by the way), Wheeler’s faced his fair share of Los Bravos. A career 170 innings against the Braves, second most against any team, has netted the Phils’ ace a 3.18 ERA.
More recently, Wheeler struck out ten in Game 2 of the NLDS, a game that the Phillies would lose. Including the postseason, Wheeler averaged almost eight strikeouts per start against Atlanta.
Best Bet Verdict: for his lifetime, Wheeler has struck out Marcell Ozuna and Austin Riley in 33% of their total plate appearances. I like that. With Wheeler’s getting +118 odds to hit o/6.5 strikeouts on Frida, we will take those odds.
Quick Hits – Braves vs Phillies
Kyle Schwarber‘s Fast Start
We’re speaking this one into existence. Kyle Schwarber has famously made a name for himself as a player who takes a few months to heat up. His career .215 batting average for March/April speaks for itself.
If the Fightins are ready to dominate the National League truly, Schwarber breaking out of his mold would be a big start. Right now on FanDuel, you can get Schwarber to homer & the Phillies to win at +550. That’s $10 to win $55.
Matt Olson loves Philly more than us.
Matt Olson consistently rakes at Citizens Bank Park. Olson has 17 career hits in Philadelphia, and 15 have been for extra bases, including eleven home runs. His 1.074 OPS scares me, and if you’re looking for a mixed-team parlay, Olson should be your play.
I’m just following the numbers, and I like Olson to record at least 2+ bases.
Getting bogged down by Brandon Marsh
Brandon Marsh is not the biggest name in the Phillies lineup, but he has terrific career numbers against Strider. Marsh has an OPS of 1.144 through twelve plate appearances and two extra-base hits.
I’m not predicting anything significant from Marsh, but I like sneaking him to record 1+ hits into an SGP (-125 odds). He’s seen Strider well in limited exposure.
Photo Credit: (AP Photo/Chris Szagola)
