Fan Expectations for Aaron Nola in 2024

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Nola Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola delivers during the first inning of a baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Pittsburgh, Sunday, July 31, 2022. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Aaron Nola has been a Philadelphia Phillie for his entire career. From 2015 to now, the fans have seen him grow into the top-tier pitcher he is today. That earned him a fancy seven-year, $172 million contract.

He didn’t start 2023 the way the fans had hoped, allowing more home runs (32) and earned runs (96) than any other year of his career, but something seemed to click with him toward the end of the year. Maybe he needed time to adjust to the new rules; maybe it was a different issue he had.

Whatever the issue was, it seemed to be corrected in the second half of the season and into the postseason. With his future certain and his uniform the same as it has been his whole career, what do the fans want to see from Aaron Nola this season?

I went to Twitter to find out.

Consistent ERA and Elite Red October Run

Aaron Nola put the Phillies on his back during the 2023 postseason. Until game six of the NLCS, nobody was hitting him. His 2023 postseason saw a 2.3 ERA and .96 WHIP. I expect his dominance in the postseason to continue this season, maybe even be better.

Even Year Nola = Elite Year Nola

The fans have been saying this throughout the off-season. When you look at his statistics by season, the years ending with an even number have been his best season. It’s weird but true.

Since we’re going into the 2024 season, can fans expect a top-tier Nola season? I think so. The statistics weirdly back up the claim.

Top-10 Cy Young Candidate

Can fans expect Nola to finish in the top 10 in Cy Young voting? Probably. He’s had multiple top-5 Cy Young seasons, and everything points toward him having a great bounce-back year. With many top pitchers going to the American League, fans can probably expect a higher Cy Young finish than they anticipate if his numbers bounce back well enough.

Nola Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola tips his hat after being relieved during the sixth inning of Game 3 of a baseball NL Division Series against the Atlanta Braves Wednesday, Oct. 11, 2023, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

No Toyota Rav 4th Scaries

Despite what it felt like and what the jokes are, it was not the fourth (4.83 ERA, 4 HR, 18 R, 32 H) inning that was Aaron Nola’s worst. The third (6.47 ERA, 9 HR, 25 R, 40 H) and fifth (5.22 ERA, 4 HR, 18 R, 34 H) innings were his worst in 2023, but not by a big margin.

I expect that to change this season more than anything else. The pitch clock could be the culprit to those statistics and with a full regular season with the clock under his belt, he should be used to it now. He should know what he needs to do to prepare for each pitch.


Aaron Nola pitched 193.2 innings this season, the fourth most of his career. He goes out there for every outing intending to pitch far into the game and does just that. He saves the bullpen and is a total workhorse. Can fans expect that in 2024? Absolutely. Nola and Zack Wheeler are the pitchers who eat the most innings for the Phillies, and I don’t see that changing this year.

With his future certain, his uniform the same, and going into an even year, I expect Aaron Nola to have a great season. I expect him to show why the Phillies signed him to that deal, which was a good idea.

Photo Credit: (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)