The 2024 season has arrived, baseball fans rejoice! With the arrival of the season, of course, comes droves of predictions both bold and mild of how the season will progress. Today, in classic Philadelphia Sports Network fashion, we bring you our writers’ best predictions for the Philadelphia Phillies as they are set to kick off the 2024 season at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday!
Alec Kostival
Phillies Record: The Phillies nabbed the top wildcard spot with a 90-72 record. The 2024 iteration of the team feels almost identical. While I want to continue my Phillies optimism, some recent questions about the rotation give me some pause. Cristopher Sanchez had a rough spring and Taijuan Walker will start the season on the IL. For this reason, I’m going to say the Phillies finish with a 88-74 record and nab the 3rd Wild Card.
NL East Standings: The NL East will play out as such:
Braves 97-65
Phillies 88-74
Marlins 85-77
Mets 82-80
Nationals 70-92
Postseason Predictions: The Phillies will travel to Cincinnati to square off against the Reds in the Wild Card Series. They’ll face the Dodgers in the NLDS and drop the series in 5 games behind a resplendent Walker Buehler. The Orioles beat the Braves in the World Series.
Team MVP: The team MVP will be Brandon Marsh as he makes his first All-Star Game.
Team Cy Young: Zack Wheeler will finish in the top-4 of Cy young voting, being the team Cy Young.
Bold prediction: JT Realmuto will break John Wathan’s (Dusty’s dad) stolen base record for a catcher (36)
Regina Ham
Team Record: The Phillies will finish 90-72 and make it to the NLCS (again). They’ll lose again in Game 7, likely due to bullpen issues. As Bryce Harper said, the team is hoping to make the postseason. “I’ll take the first or second Wild Card. I’ll take the division. Anything that gets us into October.” In the 2023 NLCS, they fell to the Arizona Diamondbacks in seven games. Lucky for Philadelphia, they didn’t suffer a lot of off-season losses. They re-signed Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler and most recently, Matt Strahm. Nola notched a 4.46 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 202 Ks in 32 starts and 193.2 innings while their other ace Wheeler had a 3.61 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 212 strikeouts over 32 starts and 192.0 innings. There isn’t a doubt how well the Phillies will do this year. They’ve got a solid lineup (still lead off likely by Kyle Schwarber) and their rotation has some great high-caliber arms. Outfield positions will be key, a big difference is that Schwarber won’t play many games in left field this season. There wasn’t a sense of desperation and this isn’t a bad place to be.
NL East Standings: I don’t want to be the bearer of bad news but the Phillies have a slim chance to win the NL East and take it away from the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta will be tough too by having reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. He became the first player to go 40-70 (40 homers, 70 steals) and he’s going to have a similarly successful season. The ONLY question might be there rotation. Chris Sale and Max Fried questionable with their health plus add in an aging (40 is an older pitcher) Charlie Morton.
The New York Mets will also be hot on the heels of the Braves and they have their weapon in Pete Alonso. There is pressure on him to help out the Mets since the very close NL East is bottom heavy in the playoff position. They’re gonna have issues with their rotation too since it’s….well maybe there. They don’t have an opening day starter (Kodai Senga) and to round out the bottom, there’s also a massive question mark. Both the Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals hung out at the bottom of the division. The Nationals are still searching for an identity and the Marlins are searching for an offense. They’re both going to be non-contenders.
Team MVP is going to Trea Turner. That’s not up for debate. Yes, his first season in Philadelphia might be best catogorized as a bit of a hot mess express. That’s behind him. After the August Ovation, in those 48 games, Turner hit .337 with 16 home runs, 42 RBI, and nine steals, not to mention a 1.037 OPS. His 2023 playoff run saw his slash .347/.400/.633. Putting up those numbers will definitely earn him team MVP. If he’s the $300 million signee that the Phillies wanted, the NL MVP might be within reach.
Team Cy Young Winner: Now there’s optimism here for the NL Cy Young winner with it coming from Philadelphia. Wheeler is a contender and a dark horse contender at that. After the All-Star Break in 2023, Wheeler recorded a 2.68 ERA with a 0.86 WHIP and a 7.0 K/BB ratio (56 K’s, 8 BB’s) over 53 2/3 innings. He’s got a solid plethora of pitches: a four-seam fastball, sinker, sweeper and curveball. His new splitter will give him an additional weapon against left-handed hitters. Wheeler stays consistent deep into games, a rarity among starting pitchers. Wheeler will likely finish ranked second in all of baseball with a projected 4.7 fWAR, just behind NL East foe Spencer Strider in 2024. The 33-year-old ace nearly won it in 2021 and received as many first-place votes as that year’s winner Corbin Burnes. This year might be the year.
Hot Take: This is going to be concise. Rob Thomson, even with his extension, has to deliver in the post season. A World Series title would sweep away last year’s NLCS Game 7 ouster. If not, he’s going to have a very warm seat. Let that marinate.
Sam DiGiovanni
Team Record: 98-64
NL East Standings: Second place behind the Braves.
World Series Winner: Dodgers over the Orioles.
Team MVP: Bryce Harper
Team Cy Young: Zack Wheeler
Bold Take: The Phillies trade for another starting pitcher well-ahead of the trade deadline.
Shaun Nestor
Team Record: Let me set things straight: I am one that likes to see things on the bright side. I like giving people the benefit of the doubt and trying to find the positive in life. That being said, when it comes to the regular season, anything below a 90-win season should be considered a failure for the Phillies this year. That is the bar. Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are re-signed. Bryce Harper is fully healed from Tommy John. Trea Turner has settled into Philadelphia. Has the team tangibly improved from 2023? Yet to be seen. However, the current core of players on the Phillies are in their prime and Dave Dombrowski knows he cannot waste 2024 by settling for a Wild Card and a simple postseason appearance.
I’ll put the Phillies at 94-68.
NL East Standings: Not much is likely to change here. The Atlanta Braves are built for the regular season marathon and they will likely be right under that 100-win mark in 2024, taking the NL East once again. The Phillies will sit behind them in second place while the New York Mets try to make the world remember they exist in third. Washington and Miami? Negligible for 2024, but they are both building and will not be ignored for much longer.
For 2024, if the Phillies get impact seasons from center field and the back end of their rotation, I do believe the Phillies could push the Braves and take the NL East, but that is not a guarantee. As of now, that will come down to Johan Rojas and Taijuan Walker (when Walker returns from the Injured List).
World Series Winner: Phillies over Orioles in six games. Zack Wheeler versus Corbin Burnes is a pitching duel for the ages while the rest of the series becomes a straight slugfest up and down I-95. Nick Castellanos hits what will be the game-deciding home run in Game Six with Liam nearly getting kicked out because he’s climbing the netting in pure joy.
Team MVP: While not a stat leader, JT Realmuto will prove once more the value he brings to the Phillies as one of the best catchers in baseball. His offense will improve when compared to 2023, but his true value as a defensive catcher will shine through on every front. His pop time is still elite, he is an amazing pitch framer, and he has proven his trustworthiness time and again as a commander for the Phillies’ pitching battery.
Team Cy Young: Zack Wheeler. And he will be in the running for NL Cy Young. Wheeler, now settled in for the next several years, is going to get to work and show the Major Leagues what he is made of. While I’m not going to say either words, I also believe that Wheeler will throw AT LEAST a complete game shutout this year… probably more than just a shutout.
Hot Take: Kyle Schwarber does not lead off for a majority of the season.
Photo Credit: (AP Photo/Chris Szagola)
