F1 Japanese GP Betting preview: Odds and predictions following shocking Aussie GP result

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Ferrari driver Carlos Sainz of Spain sprays champagne as he celebrates after winning the Australian Formula One Grand Prix at Albert Park, in Melbourne, Australia, Sunday, March 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Scott Barbour)

The 2024 F1 season is underway and has already been filled with surprises. Max Verstappen shockingly retired from the Australian GP, paving the way for Carlos Sainz to take his first victory since the 2023 Singapore Grand Prix. Will we see another surprise victor at Suzuka?

How to watch F1 Japanese Grand Prix

When: Sunday, April 7th, 1AM EST
Where: Suzuka International, Japan
How: ESPN, F1TV, Sky Sports F1

The 2024 F1 races are being broadcast on ESPN & ESPN+ in America, while both practice sessions and Qualifying sessions will be shown on ESPN2. Fans can also subscribe to F1TV for an unrivaled viewing experience. For those outside of the US, Sky Sports F1 remains the premier destination for live and uninterupted viewing.

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F1 Japanese GP betting odds

Max Verstappen-500
Sergio Perez+1200
Charles Leclerc+1400
Carlos Sainz+1400
Landon Norris+2200
Oscar Piastri+3000
Lewis Hamilton+3500
George Russell+3500
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Formula 1 Japanese GP preview

Ferrari were able to take full advantage of Max Verstappen’s mechanical woes last time out, bringing home a 1-2 finish in Melbourne and asserting themselves as the premier threat to Red Bull. Surprisingly, both drivers sit at 14/1 going into this weekend, while Max Verstappen remains a very heavy favorite at -500.

There’s no real reason to doubt Verstappen. His retirement was the first DNF he’d registered since the Aussie GP back in 2022. Since then, he’s won two world titles and 34 races. Max also took pole in Japan last year and went on to win while also setting the fastest lap. To say this is the outlier would be an understatement, but from a betting standpoint, there’s virtually no value in backing a driver priced at -500 because the risk doesn’t meet the reward.

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Mecánicos trabajar para apagar las llamas del monoplaza del piloto holandés Max Verstappen en la cuarta vuelta del Gran Premio de Australia el domingo 24 de marzo del 2024. (AP Foto/Scott Barbour,Pool)
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If you want to bet on a couple of wildcards this weekend, look no further than the McLaren boys. Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri both finished ahead of Red Bull’s Sergio Perez last week and looked much better around the faster-paced circuit in comparison to what we saw in Saudi Arabia. The McLaren fits circuits with higher-speed corners much better than slower circuits and should thrive at Suzuka. While wins may be just out of reach, podium and top-5 props are bound to bring plenty of value to bettors this week.

F1
Ferrari driver Carlos Sainz of Spain is sprayed in champagne after winning the Australian Formula One Grand Prix by McLaren driver Lando Norris, right, of Britain at Albert Park, in Melbourne, Australia, Sunday, March 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Scott Barbour)

Formula 1 Japanese GP betting pick

As obvious as a Max Verstappen win feels, his pricing makes it so hard to back. Instead, pivoting to Charles Leclerc or even Sergio Perez (Max’s teammate priced at +1200) feels like a play with much higher upside depending on your wager.

If you wanted to throw some big cash at this, then betting a Driver as dominant as Verstappen is at least gives you a somewhat decent return. But if you only want to bet $5-$10, then backing one of the chasing pack makes much more sense.

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Ferrari driver Carlos Sainz of Spain steers his car during the Australian Formula One Grand Prix at Albert Park, in Melbourne, Australia, Sunday, March 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Asanka Brendon Ratnayake)

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AP Photo/Scott Barbour