The Philadephia Phillies welcome the Atlanta Braves for Opening Day and we’re just over a week away from the launch of the 2024 MLB campaign.
With that in mind, I dare say we’re running late on giving you some MLB award predictions. We want you all to have your wagers locked in before Zack Wheelers hits 100 K’s or Trea Turner steals his first 20 bases.
So for the Phillies, a team with plenty of superstars, let’s look at their most likely candidates for major MLB yearly awards. Starting with the award that Shohei Otani’s interpreter certainly put a little money on…
MVP
Candidates: Bryce Harper (+1200), Trea Turner (+2200), odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Somewhat forgettable (at least for me), Harper isn’t too far removed from an NL MVP award. In 2021, Harper’s 1.044 OPS proved to voters that he’d earned the award. Ohtani won the award for the AL but now Harper will be going head-to-head against the multi-tool phenom.
With almost 12-to-1 odds, you’re getting tremendous value from the two-time MVP winner and the noise has grown to a healthy whisper ahead of Harper’s much anticipated full-season at first-base.
And Turner – a real candidate for 30 homers and 30 stolen bases – could take the National League by storm. With 26 long balls and a perfect 30-for-30 on stolen bases in 2023, only a regrettable start to his Phillies career held him back a year ago.
A full season replicating his August & September would be enough to win the award. Turner did most of his damage in the final months of the season, as made evident by the below:
| Trea Turner | 2023 | BA | HR | RBI | SO % |
| April – July | .242 | 10 | 34 | 24% |
| August – October | .317 | 16 | 42 | 17% |
Verdict: I’ve fallen in love with Turner after diving into those late-season figures from 2023. 22-to-1 aren’t odds you’ll likely see for Turner very often. While Harper’s the safer bet, hitting on Turner would make you the smartest friend in the group chat.
Cy Young
Candidates: Zack Wheeler (+900), Aaron Nola (+2000), odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Phillies’ Opening Day starter, Wheeler, owns the second-best odds for NL Cy Young behind only the man he’ll face to kick off the season – Spencer Strider.
Wheeler’s not exactly coming off his best season either. The 22 home runs he surrendered, ten from September on, stands as the second-worst mark of his Major League career. You’d expect him to buck that trend coming off his worse campaign in Philadelphia, but I’m still raising an eyebrow that Vegas considers him a favorite.
Nola, another pitcher fresh off a big deal, really needs to play up to his $24MM a year. If you think Philly fans were mad when they outlawed Dollar Dog Night, just wait until Nola gives up back-to-back home runs.
While I don’t love Nola as an award winner, it would be almost impossible to replicate the 32 homers he surrended last season. For those keeping track, Nola essentially averaged on home run allowed per start. That’s a wild number and I’d be impressed if Nola can repeat. Expect a bounce back but not a ‘best pitched in the NL’ bounce.
Verdict: even as a Phillies fan, I would stay away from both of these fellas. If you’re forcing me to choose, Wheeler at 9-to-1 ($10 to win $90) seems a bit more realistic.
Rookie of the Year
Candidates: Orion Kerkering, Simón Muzziotti
With the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto odds on NL Favorite to win Rookie of the Year, I’m probably wasting server space.
You won’t find Kerkering or Muzziotti in any sportsbooks but they’re both eligible for the NL ROY award & I’d like to talk about some dark horse candidates.
After just three regular-season appearances, Kerkering impressed in the 2023 postseason, spattering two earned runs across 5 & 1/3 innings. A rough start from either José Alvarado or Seranthony Domínguez could thrust the young righty into a setup/closer role.
At that point, he would look to replicate a season reminiscent of the 2020 NL ROY, Devin Williams who allowed just one earned run across 27 innings over a shorted COVID campaign.
Muzziotti likely won’t see much time given the state of the Phillies’ overcrowded outfield but, not rooting for any of this, a few injuries, and Muzzy would be one of the first man up. Just keep an eye on live odds if either of these youngsters start cooking.
Verdict: Kerkering should develop into a keystone of the Phillies’ 2024 bullpen. While it likely won’t garner any ROY support, he’s the Phillies’ best shot at bringing the award to Broad Street.
Comeback Player of the Year
Candidates: Rhys Hoskins
I’m cheating here – obviously, Hoskins has moved onto greener, lager-filled pastures. Still, a solid campaign for the Brewers could have Hoskins leading the pack for NL Comeback Player of the Year.
While he’s not longer a Phil, you can bet everyone in Philadephia will be rooting for Hoskins.
Verdict: I’m having trouble finding odds on this but what a nice story it would be. That’s how we all win.
Photo credit: AP Photo/Matt Slocum
