Diamondbacks vs Phillies: Betting preview & best bets for NLCS Game 1

Philadelphia Phillies’ Nick Castellanos flips his bat after hitting a home run during the sixth inning of Game 4 of a baseball NL Division Series against the Atlanta Braves Thursday, Oct. 12, 2023, in Philadelphia.(AP Photo/Chris Szagola)

Diamondbacks vs Phillies: the Philadelphia Phillies have returned to the National League Championship Series, but this time, they have a home-field advantage.

So, as the Phillies look to defend the National League Pennant against a scrappy Arizona Diamondbacks squad, Zack Wheeler will take the mound for his third start of the 2023 postseason. And he’s been fantastic.

It all starts tonight, and we’re back with our latest gambling guide for NLCS Game 1. Take a look.

Diamondbacks vs Phillies game info

  • Location: Citizens Bank Park – Philadelphia, PA
  • Time: October 16th, 8:07p EST
  • Channel: TBS

Diamondbacks vs Phillies Betting Stats:


Diamondbacks vs Phillies: Pitching Matchup

Zac Gallen (1-0, 3.18 ERA) v. Zack Wheeler (1-0, 2.08 ERA)

The only thing Zac Gallen‘s missing is the ‘K.’ Well, in his name, anyway.

Gallen finished the regular season as the MLB’s 6th most accomplished strikeout machine, averaging 6.47 strikeouts per start. While that average has dipped a bit in the postseason (4.0 per game), he should have plenty to make our strikeout parlay.

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) works from the mound in the first inning of Game 2 of a baseball NL Division Series against the Atlanta Braves, Monday, Oct. 9, 2023, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

Meanwhile, Wheeler’s led all postseason pitchers with 18 strikeouts through two starts. For their career, Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. have struck out in almost 30% of all plate appearances against the Phils’ ace. A couple of strikeouts from that combo can help put us over the top.

If you combine these pitchers to record 6+ strikeouts, you pop out with +172 odds or $10 to win $17.20.

Quick Hits – Diamondbacks vs Phillies

Slowing Down Christian Walker

So, just as I tease Walker for his strikeouts against Wheeler, I also need to acknowledge that he’s had some success against the righty.

Of any of the D-Backs current roster, Walker’s faced Wheeler the most with 17 plate appearances. He’s converted those to a 1.142 OPS with three doubles and a homer. I always like sprinkling a little juice from the enemy, and tonight it’ll be Walker to record 2+ bases at +165 odds on FanDuel.

Time to Turner it on

The Phillies haven’t succeeded against Gallen, so we need to dig deep here. I thought stolen bases might be something we could exploit with either Bryson Stott or Trea Turner, but runners have only had about a 40% success rate against Gallen.

Still, we’re sticking with Turner, who’s seen moderate success earlier in his career against Gallen. Excluding an 0-for-3 performance in 2023, he’s hit .266 with a homer and a double. I also love that he’s hitting .455 over the last week. That’s enough for me to throw Turner to record 2+ bases into my next parlay.

Philadelphia Phillies’ Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Bryson Stott, from left, celebrate the team’s win over the Miami Marlins in Game 2 of an NL wild-card baseball playoff series Wednesday, Oct. 4, 2023, in Philadelphia. The Phillies swept the series, and move on to face the Atlanta Braves. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

Midnight for Kyle Schwarber

There’s no way to sugarcoat it – Kyle Schwarber has been dreadful in the 2023 postseason. We’ve gotten used to the low batting average (.160 through six games), and that’s been forgivable, given his 47 total homers.

But that’s all been missing. Now, Schwarber’s no more than an albatross at the top of the Phillies lineup. Well, I’m not giving up.

Tonight, he sees Gallen, a right-handed pitcher, and his only career hit against him has left the ballpark. I think he does it again tonight, and you can get those odds at +320 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

AP Photo/Chris Szagola