The Philadelphia Phillies have a 1-0 lead over the Miami Marlins following last night’s 4-1 win. If they can find a way to win this evening, they will advance to the next round of the playoffs where a date with the Atlanta Braves awaits.
Phillies vs Marlins info
Date: Wednesday, October 4th
Time: 8:00PM ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
TV channel: MLB TV, NBCSP
Phillies vs Marlins Betting odds
Money line: Philadelphia Phillies (-162) | Miami Marlins (+136)
Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Miami Marlins +1.5 (-166)
Run total: Over/Under 8 (-110)
Pitching matchup
Aaron Nola (12-9, 4.46 ERA) vs Braxton Garrett (9-7, 3.66 ERA)
Aaron Nola takes to the mound on Wednesday with hopes of maintaining his improved form. It’s been a tale of two halves for Nola this season, but the month of September proved to be a positive one. The Phillies have won each of his last 4 starts and he’s only allowed one home run in that span. He’s still bleeding hits, having surrendered 6+ in each September start, which is definitely something to keep an eye on.
Across from Nola will be Braxton Garrett, who has a 2.26 ERA over his last 4 starts. He’s allowed 15 hits through those 19 innings, striking out 20. Garrett has enjoyed an extremely solid season and will be looking to silence a Phillies offense that put up 11 hits in last night’s win.
The total for this game is only 8, with both Nola and Garrett among the better starting pitchers this year. It might be wise to look at betting the UNDER given the prestige of both and the fact that only 5 runs were scored last night.
Phillies vs Marlins Betting preview
If you’re looking for an edge tonight, it’s worth noting that Phillies batters are averaging .353 against Braxton Garrett and there are some key names who have found great success against him in the past.
Alec Bohm: .556 (5H, 1 HR, 2 RBI on 7 at bats)
Edmundo Sosa: .400 (4H, 1 triple, 2 RBI, 10 at bats)
J.T Realmuto: .429 (3H, 1HR, 3RBI, 7 at bats)
Alec Bohm is +500 to hit a home run tonight, while Realmuto is +450. Bohm has only homered 3 times since September 20th, but has 20 on the season. Realmuto has only done so once in that same 10-game span. You get better odds on Bohm as well as the batter in hotter form. This is a great prop to either bet individually or add to a Same Game Parlay.
Elsewhere, Nick Castellanos has been profitable for some time now. His two hits last night played a huge part in the eventual win, but he also has 11 hits in his last 10 games. He’s -230 to record another on Wednesday night.
Game prediction:
The vibes at Citizens Bank Park are immaculate right now. The song is blaring, the fans are rampant, and the Phils are hot. It’s hard to see the Marlins being able to win when the team is in this kind of flow state. Back the Phils to secure their spot in the next round.
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AP Photo/Matt Slocum
