Marlins vs. Phillies: nobody hits the flop like the Fish
With a chance to take the series from the Miami Marlins, the Philadelphia Phillies suit up this afternoon behind the right arm of Zack Wheeler.
With the exception this series opener, betting on the Phils’ bats in 2023 has been a dubious ask.
While Philadelphia sits among the MLB’s worst in walks (28), strikeouts (107), and most damning, their 22nd overall rank in runs scored (49), they’re still sitting among the top-5 of almost every other relevant hitting statistics, including hits (110), doubles (26), batting average (.288) and OPS (.807).
Something got to give, and against a young, wild Marlins starter, Philly’s offense has the potential to do some real damage. Let’s take a look.
Marlins vs Phillies game info
- Location: Citizens Bank Park; Philadelphia, PA
- Time: April 12th, 4:05p EST
- Channel: NBCSP, BSFL, MLB Network
Marlins vs Phillies Betting Stats:
| BOOK | MONEYLINE | SPREAD | O/U RUNS |
| FANDUEL | MARLINS (+160), PHILLIES (-190) | PHILLIES -1.5 (-105) | 8.5 |
| DRAFTKINGS | MARLINS (+160), PHILLIES (-190) | PHILLIES -1.5 (+110) | 8.5 |
Marlins vs Phillies: Series Finale Pitching Matchup
Edward Cabrera (0-1, 5.40 ERA) v. Zack Wheeler (0-1, 5.59 ERA)
PHILLIES
Let’s get cute with Wheeler’s strikeout O/U. Right now, it’s floating around 6.5, meaning the think tank in Las Vegas also watched his first two starts, which featured an average total of… six strikeouts.
Given that the Marlins have already tallied 112 K’s through twelve games, or the fourth worst in the MLB, you can get some real value on Wheeler to eclipse his alternate total of 7+ strikeouts at +114 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.
In particular, Wheeler’s seen some success against Jon Berti and Garrett Cooper, who he’s struck out almost 35% of their combined plate appearances.
MARLINS
Through two starts and 6 & 2/3 innings, Edward Cabrera allowed thirteen total walks in the young ’23 season. While that number should likely fall back to earth given both starts came against the New York Mets, the ballclub with the fourth most (52) walks this season; the Phillies could learn something from the Mets.
With eleven games played, the Phils have the third-fewest walks in the MLB, better than only the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks. Cabrera could be the pitcher to unlock a little patience in Philadephia.
Marlins vs Phillies: Prop of the Day
Realmuto would be a good pick, but we will stay away, given his .143 BA over the last week. Bryson Stott, on the other hand, after a day in eight-hole, has had at least two hits per game in the previous four.
If you pair Stott to record 2+ hits with Wheeler at 7+ strikeouts, you turn out +661 odds or $10 to win $66.18. I like that.
Marlins vs Phillies: Final Verdict
I like Wheeler O/7 strikeouts in what I predict will be his most impressive start of ’23 to date but right now, you can get Philly to cover -1.5 at PLUS odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
At +110 odds, that’s $10 to win $11. Nothing too crazy but I think we all need a win.
BET OF THE DAY: Phillies -1.5 (+110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
