Rashaad Penny
It would be a waste of time to list all of Penny’s carries as he has been injured most of his career. He is, however, on the precipice of a 2,000-yard season for the Eagles. Unless they draft Bijan.
The Seahawks decided to spend a first-round pick on a running back when their offensive line just came off a 31st-ranked season at run blocking.
During Penny’s time they ranked:
2018 – 12th
2019 – 16th
2020 – 10th
2021 – 14th
2022 – 30th
2018-2021 can be attributed to Russell Wilson being their QB.
Could Rashaad Penny end up being teammates with Bijan Robinson in 2023?
Josh Jacobs
Another team who had major needs elsewhere, like replacing Khalil Mack, but decided to spend a first on a running back.
It’s hard to complain about Jacobs’ production but, since the Raiders are also incompetent, it hasn’t led to much success for the team.
Carries / FB Outsiders
2019 – 242 (13th / 18.6) / 6th
2020 – 273 (3rd / 18.2) / 18th
2021 – 217 (11th / 14.5) / 17th
2022 – 340 (2nd / 20) / 1st
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
A lot of people were stunned at this pick. But tough to argue Andy Reid’s non-challenge decisions.
CEH played 13 games his rookie year, 10 his second, and 10 this past season. He averaged 13.9 carries per game his rookie year and has seen that number tumble all the way down to 7.1 in 2022.
The Chiefs decided to forgo all of their defensive needs and draft a running back and also had the 28th ranked run-blocking offensive line in 2019.
FB Outsiders ranks:
2020 – 14th
2021 – 8th
2022 – 3rd
Najee Harris
One of the few teams on this list who actually needed a running back, but maybe not this high. Harris has been very good since entering the league, but he’s on the fast track to worn out tires as we’ve seen with Ezekiel Elliot while being behind a worse offensive line. Going into the 2021 draft, the Steelers had the worst run-blocking offensive line.
Carries / FB Outsiders rank:
2021 – 307 (2nd / 18.1) / 28th
2022 – 272 (5th / 16) / 10th
While 2022 was a major jump up in blocking, the Steelers have spent a lot of money this offseason in their offensive line. Maybe they’re finally looking to support their first-round pick.
As for the Eagles, they’ve already got that part nailed down and Jason Kelce’s return in 2023 has set the ground-game up for another year of dominance. Is Bijan Robinson the missing piece?
Travis Etienne
The biggest head-scratcher of the entire list, but Urban Meyer was running the show so was it really a surprise?
The 2020 Jags had come off a second consecutive 1000-yard season from a running back (Fournette – 2019, Robinson – 2020) and had drafted their franchise quarterback first overall in the 2021 draft. Who comes in at 25th? Travis Etienne. He missed his rookie season with a Lisfranc injury suffered in the preseason and did come back in 2022 with a 1,125-yard season. Time will tell if he was worth the pick, but it’s an extreme long shot.
Last season, Etienne had 220 carries (13th in the league / 12.9 attempts) behind an offensive line that was ranked 29th in run blocking.
The averages
If you take all the carries between the running backs outside of Ezekiel Elliott (and Penny due to his injuries) and their seasons where they played close to a full season, you get an average of 232.5 carries per season behind offensive lines that averaged a ranking of 16.9.
Where would 232.5 carries rank in each season analyzed?
2017 – 12th
2018 – 9th
2019 – 16th
2020 – 7th
2021 – 8th
2022 – 10th
Four seasons in the top ten in carries and all six in the top half of the league. In the grand scheme of things, 232.5 carries isn’t that much. Across a now 17-game season, that averages to 13.67 attempts per game, which is less than all but four seasons listed above. However, all of these attempts were behind offensive lines that collectively averaged as a bottom-half run-blocking line. Doesn’t seem to be a recipe for success.
