NFL Thanksgiving betting preview
Happy Thanksgiving. While you’re all tucking into juicy Turkeys and enjoying some wholesome time with your loved ones, the NFL Thanksgiving triple-header will provide some background entertainment. Naturally, that means there is plenty of opportunities for NFL bettors to get in on the action.
Here are my picks for today’s NFL Thanksgiving games:
Bills vs Lions
Moneyline: Bills -410 | Lions +330
Against the spread: Bills -9.5 | Lions +9.5
Over/Under: 54 points
54 points feels awfully high for a Thanksgiving game, but then again, so does a 9.5 point spread against a Lions team that’s on a three-game winning streak and has the leader in NFL rushing touchdowns, Jamaal Williams.
I know it’s easy to go heavy on the Bills here, but the Lions are 3-1 as an underdog this season. I’m not fully sold on their ability to win the game outright, but they’re used to playing Thanksgiving fixtures and also have the homefield advantage.
My pick here is the Lions +9.5, but I wouldn’t mind a punt on Jamaal Williams to score a rushing touchdown at -110.
Giants vs Cowboys
Moneyline: Giants +360 | Cowboys -450
Against the spread: Giants -10 | Cowboys +10
Over/Under: 45 points
I know the Cowboys have caught fire since Dak’s prodigal return, but are the Giants really 10 points worse off against a divisional rival. Saquon Barkley is already closing in on 1,000 rushing yards and Dallas is giving up 136 rushing yards per game on average. Over their last 3, that number has climbed to 173. I don’t trust the Cowboys defense here and a two-possession spread is something I’m keen to take advantage of.
Pick: New York Giants +10
Vikings vs Patriots
Moneyline: Vikings -135 | Patriots +115
Against the spread: Vikings -2.5 | Patriots +2.5
Over/Under: 42.5 points
This line definitely feels like an overreaction to Sunday’s defeat, but the Vikes will be without Christian Darrisaw, which will leave the rampant Matt Judon licking his chops. I don’t like Kirk Cousins in big-time spots and after the Vikings were gashed by the Vikings last week, I’d expect New England to come out pounding the rock.
I don’t like any line in this game, but if I had to make a choice, I’d back the Patriots to cover. They’re 6-3-1 ATS this season, 3-1-1 on the road, and 5-2-1 with less-than 8 days off.
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