The Phillies and Padres are now tied 1-1 in the NLCS. Can the Phils make the most of their home field advantage?
You don’t remember who Freddy picked first.
You don’t remember the name of Jason’s camp.
You don’t remember the owner of Chucky (it’s Andy).
And Halloween Ends; nobody remembers that.
I don’t think anyone remembers Game 2, either—just another plot point in an otherwise fantastic story.
What: National League National League Championship Series, Game 3 – San Diego Padres @ Philadephia Phillies
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Thursday, October 21st @ 7:37p
Padres v Phillies: Game 3 – Pitching matchup
Joe Musgrove (Regular Season: 10-7, 2.93 ERA & Postseason: 1-0, 1.38 ERA) v. Ranger Suárez (Regular Season: 10-7, 3.65 ERA & Postseason: 0-0, 2.70 ERA)
Good news for Ranger Suárez. The top four of the Padres lineup has hit .118 lifetime against Suárez. Translation, Jurickson Profar, Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and Jake Cronenworth have two combined hits in eighteen total plate appearances.
If you want to throw Josh Bell‘s .125 batting average across ten PA, Suárez starts looking like a bonafide All-Star.
Do you know what I said about Suárez? Joe Musgrove hasn’t had much trouble with the Phillies, either.
The top of the Phillies lineup has hit just .179 against Red Hot, with only Nick Castellanos seeing moderate success. More on that later.
I was there in person when Musgrove bested the New York Mets in the finale of the Wildcard series. We can argue spin rate all you want, but this kid might be the best number three in baseball. Still, I like a lot of runs tonight.
Best Books and Better Bets
Odds on the Phillies to cover +1.5 are about the same between DraftKings and FanDuel, just about -180. We don’t love that return.
These books are basically telling you that even if the Phillies cover, you aren’t making much more than $5 if you put down $10. That’s no way to get rich.
We’re going to pair that with o/7.5 runs. Both offenses are primed, and you’re looking at a clear night in Philadelphia with temperatures floating around the mid-50s.
The Phillies have covered and hit the over all but twice in the 2022 playoffs, and they’re coming off a massive letdown in Game 2. They need to right the ship.
Props and Parlays
So here is my proposal for you today. This is a confusing same-game parlay, but I’ve been mediocre with anything conventional.
This is a long shot, but FanDuel wants your money, and I’m a sucker for 10-to-1 odds.
|Nick Castellanos – To Record a Hit||-190|
|Joe Musgrove – 6+ Strikeouts||-128|
|Ranger Suarez – 5+ Strikeouts||+158|
|Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline||+100|
Bonus Bet Tracker
Action on the Phillies to win the World Series opened at 30-to-1, and when the Phillies were up 4-0 on Tuesday, you weren’t getting good odds at all.
If Zack Wheeler‘s a nice tan, then Brad Hand is melanoma.
The Phillies are still at +380 to win the World Series today, so that’s about $10 to win $38. You can still make a little money if you aren’t busy watching James Harden hustle back on defense.
AP Photo/Gregory BulL