Phillies vs Rockies: Betting preview & prediction

MLB: AUG 11 Dodgers at Phillies
PHILADELPHIA, PA – AUGUST 11: Philadelphia Phillies Pitcher Kyle Gibson (44) delivers a pitch during the third inning of a Major League Baseball game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Philadelphia Phillies on August 11, 2021, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire)

The Phillies are set to host the Rockies for a four-game series starting tonight at Citizen’s Bank Park. While the Sixers will look to take care of business over the road, Kyle Gibson will be hoping to take advantage of the energy in the area and get the Phils back firing on all cylinders.

The story so far

The Phillies clashed with the Rockies last week and lost the series 2-1. The Rockies then went on to face Detroit, winning 2 of the three once again, but being slapped 13-0 in the opening game. The offense responded well and scored a 9 combined runs over their next 2 games.

As for the Phillies, things haven’t exactly gone well. They’re 3-7 in their last 10 games and despite their offense showing it can pack a punch, it’s struggled to go the distance and hot starts slowly burn out. Coming off a 1-0 loss to the Brewers last night, the Phils will be hoping that their better home form (4-5 at home vs 3-7 on the road) can swing things back in their favor.

Pitching matchup

Kyle Freeland (0-2, 7.71 ERA) vs. Kyle Gibson (1-1, 3.57 ERA)

Kyle Gibson will be making start number four of the season for the Phillies and despite holding a 3.57 ERA, has struggled since his opening game. After allowing 0 runs in that first game, he has allowed 7 runs in his next 10.2 innings. His last start came against Colorado where he lasted six innings and gave up just as many hits along with three runs.

In the battle of the Kyle’s episode 2, Mr Freeland will be trying to keep the Phillies offense at bay. He took an L against the Phils when he pitched against them last week, giving up a pair of runs and 6 hits in the process. He’s significantly weaker on the road than he is at home and this may open the door for the batters to heat up.

Betting prediction

The Phillies are -185 favorites coming into this matchup and the run-total has slightly increased over last game to 8.5. Our picks are now 3-1 in the last four games.

If you’re backing the Phillies, this could be a good spot. Despite what their offensive output suggests, they somehow rank 5th in the MLB in team batting average. They’re back home and facing a pitcher who has given up at least 5 hits in each start so far, including 6 against the Phils just seven days ago.

If Gibson can find some form, the Phillies -1.5 could hold some real value.

Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+110)

Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire