Marlins vs Phillies: Betting preview, predictions & picks

MLB: SEP 23 Phillies at Nationals
WASHINGTON, DC – SEPTEMBER 23: Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zach Eflin (56) pitches during the Philadelphia Phillies versus the Washington Nationals on September 23, 2020 at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)

The Phillies slipped to a disappointing defeat in Miami last night despite a pretty strong offensive outing. They’ll be looking to make up for lost time against their bogey team when the Marlins and Phils slug it out again tonight at 6.40. Here’s all you need to know.

Ups and downs

Things started pretty good for the Philadelphia Phillies. They held a 1-0 lead through the opening three frames only to give up four runs in the next two innings. Bryce Harper’s double in the seventh was enough to make it a one-run game, but the team was unable to do anything else.

Kyle Gibson pitched 4.2 innings with 4 earned runs and 3 walks. He struck out 6 batters in the process and outside of a blip, was as solid as he was in his first game of the season.

The Phillies offense did tally 11 hits on the day, but they were just unable to do anything productive with them. 8 of those hits were singles and although it was nice to see glimpses of a consistent offense, they were unable to really punish a pitcher who has routinely struggled against them.

Pitching matchup

Zach Eflin takes the mound this evening on the back of a positive 4 innings against the A’s. He allowed two hits, two walks, and struckout three while keeping them off the scoreboard. He’s 33-40 during his career with a 4.52 ERA, but is 5-6 against the Marlins with a 4.75 ERA and 54 strikeouts.

Standing opposite him will be Pablo Lopez. He’s 18-21 in his career with a 4.00 ERA, and went 5 innings in his first start this season, giving up no runs, three hits, and a walk.

Betting lines

The Phillies come into this matchup as +120 underdogs, meaning a $100 bet would land you $120 profit if they win. At +1.5 runs, they’re -190.

Betting prediction

The total is 7.5 runs and has actually cashed in 7 of the Phils’ last 10 road contests, including last night’s 7-run affair. As established yesterday, Miami rank near the bottom of the league in the majority of offensive metrics and provided that the Phils can get another solid pitching effort from Efflin and the bullpen, the bats just aren’t firing hard enough to push that total past 8 at this time. Betting on the run-line under 7.5 will be my play today. A $100 bet would return $90 profit.

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Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire

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