What Should We Expect from Kyle Gibson in 2022?

MLB: AUG 11 Dodgers at Phillies
PHILADELPHIA, PA – AUGUST 11: Philadelphia Phillies Pitcher Kyle Gibson (44) delivers a pitch during the third inning of a Major League Baseball game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Philadelphia Phillies on August 11, 2021, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire)

When the Phillies traded their top pitching prospect, Spencer Howard, for Kyle Gibson and Ian Kennedy, one of the big selling points was Gibson being signed through 2022.

The first half of 2021 was certainly the year of the Gibby. Gibson had a 2.87 ERA in 19 starts with the Texas Rangers, making his first-ever All-Star Game. After his trade to the Phillies, he fell off a bit. In 11 starts (12 games) for the Phillies, Gibson posted a 5.09 ERA.

His best start came in San Diego when Gibby went 8 IP with 1 ER. His worst starts came in stinkers against the Dodgers (6 ER) and Marlins (8 ER).

Many believe that starting pitching will be a strength for the Phillies in 2022. For that to be true, Gibson will have to at least be average as a 5th man. For an entire season in his career, Gibson’s best came in 2018. That season he posted a 3.62 ERA in 196.2 IP. His worst full season was 2017 when he posted a 5.07 ERA over 158 IP.

So, what can we expect in 2022?

PECOTA projects Gibson to have a 4.46 ERA in 151.1 IP. Baseball Reference has Gibby projected for a 4.26 ERA in 167 IP. Coincidentally, 4.26 was the exact average ERA in the 2021 season.

For comparison’s sake, I think Gibson will look a lot like another Phillies’ Kyle. I’m talkin’ Kendrick. More specifically, Gibson should put up similar numbers to a 2012-2014 Kyle Kendrick.

At best, Gibson would have a sub-4 ERA like 2012 Kendrick. That season he posted a 3.90 ERA in 159.1 IP. At worst, he’s probably 2013 Kendrick who posted a 4.71 ERA. My best guess is Gibson looks like Kendrick’s average from that span, a 4.43 ERA.

To justify that comparison, Gibson’s career ERA is 4.45. Kendrick’s career ERA with the Phillies was 4.42.

With Wheeler, Nola, Suarez, and Eflin, Gibson doesn’t need to be perfect. He just needs to be sturdy.

Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire