There have been shovels of information regarding the future of Carson Wentz within the last few days. One team has emerged from the chaos as the frontrunner:
The Colts have long been assumed as the most logical destination, for Carson Wentz. Now, with talks seemingly closing in on the finish line, what should we expect to see as compensation?
The Carson Wentz contract
There is a large (wrong) narrative that the Eagles would have to give up picks along with Wentz to get anything substantial. This isn’t Jared Goff.
The Rams had to part with Goff and multiple firsts to get rid of his contract and get Matt Stafford. That wasn’t just a salary dump.
Neither is this, well for the trading team.
For the Eagles, it is purely about getting from his cap number in the future, not 2021, and moving on from someone who has largely been criticized for his attitude. Here’s his 2021 cap implication if he is traded (via Eliot Shorr Parks):
If the Eagles were to trade Wentz this offseason they would actually save cap space. His cap figure would go from $34.6 million to $33.8 million, a savings of around $800,000. Of course, he would leave a massive dead-money cap hit of $33.8 million.
The $33.8 million dead cap hit would be the largest in NFL history, but it would also open up almost the same amount of cap space in 2022. That is, if the trade is done before the league year starts on March 17th (my birthday!).
For the trading team (Colts?), they would be on the hook for a 4 year $98 million contract. Still a lot, right? Well, actually not quite. The trading team would really have a 2-year ~$47 million contract, as 2023 and 2024 aren’t guaranteed.
Again, the trading team is getting an average of $23.5M per year for the next two years which is tied with Alex Smith for 17th in the league. No brainer for teams.
What would the Colts give up for Carson Wentz
With Matt Stafford getting two first-round picks, it is not farfetched to think a team in the latter part of the first round could send their first for Wentz. Enter the Colts.
I don’t think this is a “multiple firsts” scenario, but I do believe this is a “21st pick + rookie contract” for Wentz.
The talented cornerback is on a second-round contract signed in 2019. This would give the Eagles two seasons of $2.1 million and $2.5 million cap hits. With former Colts cornerbacks coach Johnathan Gannon in Philadelphia as the new defensive coordinator, you would think he’s pounding the table to get his guy in. Ya-Sin would provide talented depth at CB2 and possibly start across from Slay.
Ya-Sin also went to Temple.
Himes is a free agent after 2021, which could provide Howie Roseman a coveted compensatory pick in 2023 if Hines cashes in during the 2022 offseason on a successful 2021 campaign.
Hines stands at 5’9″ and weighs 196 lb, similar to Boston Scott’s 5’6″ 203 lb frame. He averaged 23.8 yards per game last year and had 380 yards on 89 carries (4.3 YPC).
A linebacker? Howie would never!
Okereke was a third-round choice in 2019 and has two more seasons left on his rookie deal. Being that he was a third-round pick, his cap hits are $977k in 2021 and $1.18 million in 2022.
In two seasons with the Colts, He has 137 tackles, one sack, one tackle for loss, and one interception.
Sorry, everyone, I think this is a pipe dream. But I’ll talk about him anyway.
A third-round pick in 2020, Johnathan Gannon is probably outside Howie’s door right now screaming “BLACKMON!!!!!”.
Blackmon had a very good rookie season starting 14 games (15 played), registering 42 tackles, and grabbing two interceptions.
Blackmon was PFF’s highest-graded rookie through 11 weeks (79.0), but then had an average of 46.0 the rest of the season.
Blackmon’s contract hovers around $1 million in 2021, 2022, and 2023.
Two years in the league, nine games played. Sounds like an Eagles player already!
Campbell was beloved by Eagles fans coming into the 2019 draft, only to see the team select JJAW two selections before he went. In his career, Campbell has 24 receptions for 198 yards and one touchdown.
However, he was hampered by a multitude of injuries and surgeries between the two seasons. If he is 100% in 2021, the Eagles could wind up with a steal. No one will know better than Nick Sirianni.
Two years in the league after being selected in the second round of the 2019 draft, the edge rusher has 2.5 sacks in his career (all in his rookie season). He posted an ELITE 9.7 grade on the Relative Athletic Scores, so the ability is there. Could the Eagles take a chance at unlocking his potential?
He has a cap hit of $1.6 million in 2021 and $1.8 million in 2022.
Another running back who is a free agent after 2021, Wilkins may offer more upside than Hines.
In three years, Hines has 951 yards on 4.9 yards per carry. He’s a bigger back at 6’1″ 216 lbs and could provide the Eagles with a power option behind Sanders.
His cap hit is only $980k.
What will a trade for Carson Wentz look like?
Wentz could provide the Colts with the boost they need to be legitimate contenders not only in the AFC South but in the AFC overall. Pairing him with the coach who was with him in his MVP year should be a bargaining chip in its own between Howie and Chris Ballard.
If I’m Howie, I’m making that argument and not settling for less than an impact player in 2021.
Eagles send: Carson Wentz, 2021 5th, 2022 3rd
Colts send: 2021 1st (21st overall), Rock Ya-Sin, 2022 3rd that can become a 2nd if incentives are met
Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire