3. Cesar Hernandez, Mickey Moniak, One Other Prospect to Giants for Madison Bumgarner
Did I have to save the big one until the end? No, but I know this is one that many have speculated in recent days, so I wanted to get the less obvious ones out first.
Madison Bumgarner will continue to be on the Phillies radar until the very last moment on July 31, when the trade deadline passes. And what’s to like about the prospects of acquiring a former World Series MVP and four-time All-Star such as Bumgarner. It feels as if he’s been in the league forever, which would lend you to believe he’s already in his 30’s, but Bumgarner is actually just 29. He won’t be 30 until the day after the trade deadline, for those who believe is some weird other-worldly signs.
Bumgarner may not dominate as he had in years past, but in the last three seasons, including this young 2019 campaign, Bumgarner has posted a 3.24 ERA, walking just 67 over 269 innings pitched. He was injured in parts of 2017 and 2018, making just 38 starts combined. The injury concerns are certainly there, but the upside is too tremendous to pass up, especially if Aaron Nola is more seriously troubled than we’re led to believe.
The Phillies may not be getting the pitcher who faced 800 or more hitters in six consecutive seasons or the one who struck out 190 or more in all of those seasons, or the World Series MVP. But what they would be getting is a veteran pitcher with tremendous talent, one that could help anchor the starting rotation down the stretch. Think about how this sounds: a healthy Nola, a productive Bumgarner, and resurgent Jake Arrieta. A five-game series in the NLDS doesn’t sound very scary anymore. You wouldn’t have to worry about Nick Pivetta pitching a game three. Vince Velasquez wouldn’t start a game in the playoffs. It would be a much more calming rotation.
The thing with Bumgarner, regardless of the Giants expectation of not being a playoff contender, and Bumgarner’s impending free agency at the end of the season, San Francisco isn’t going to simply give him away because the Phillies asked nicely. He’ll require a haul in return. Hernandez is a piece that the Giants could use as a top of the order hitter in their rebuild. They do currently have Joe Panik as well, so one may have to find a secondary position to play. But Hernandez works well in pitcher-friendly San Francisco, where hitters who get on base are valued.
In addition to Hernandez, the Giants will require a top prospect back, which would likely come down to one of four names. Two of those names, Adam Haseley and Arquimedes Gamboa, I would be remiss to part with. So it comes down to two players, pitcher Adonis Medina, and outfielder Mickey Moniak. Medina’s value is higher. I doubt the Phillies want to get rid of him after trading Sixto Sanchez this offseason. That means it could be former number one overall pick, Mickey Moniak. Moniak hasn’t proven he’s the breakout star the Phillies hope, but he’s steadily improved since becoming a professional at 18-years-old. Now, at 21-years-old, he’s with AA Reading. He’s an acceptable trade piece for a big-time name like Bumgarner.
But he and Hernandez aren’t enough. That’s why there’s “one other prospect”. That prospect will depend on the market for starting pitching. If the market is low, it could be a middling name. If the market is stiff, the Phillies may have to fork up another top 20 prospect. Only time will tell.
Mandatory Credit: Cody Glenn-USA TODAY Sports
