July is a busy month in baseball. Divisional races heat up, teams begin to get a clearer picture if they will be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline at the end of the month. For Phillies fans, July has been circled in red and the term “July-ish” has been engrained in their minds since spring training as the anticipated time frame for when prized pitching prospect Andrew Painter could make his major league debut.
However, is that timeline still on track?
Mixed results for Andrew Painter this season
There is no doubt that Painter has shown flashes as to why he is the top prospect for the Phillies and also ranked the fifth-best prospect in all of baseball in MLB Pipeline’s updated rankings. Touching triple digits with his fastball, flashing a solid slider when it is on to go along with his 6-foot-7 frame, he has all the makings of being a big leaguer, and a very good one at that.
However, since joining Triple-A Lehigh Valley in early May, the 22-year-old has had some up and down outings while he continues to attack opposing lineups at the highest level in the minors working his way back from Tommy John surgery.
“Location. First year back from Tommy John, a lot of ups and downs. Trying to find that middle point,” Painter said after his start on June 10.
The surface stats are solid. In eight starts with Lehigh Valley, he is 3-2 with a 4.25 ERA with 40 strikeouts and 17 walks in 36 innings of work. Opponents are hitting .248 against him. He has allowed two earned runs in six of his eight Triple-A starts. Dealing with a blister, his ERA ballooned allowing 10 total earned runs in nine innings in back-to-back starts to open up June.
In most of Painter’s starts to this point, what stands out is his ability to get through a lineup the first time but then struggling at times to maintain that success a second and third time through. When facing a lineup the first time, opponents are hitting .250 against him with 20 strikeouts to four walks while allowing five earned runs. A second and third time through, opposing hitters are hitting .271 against the righty allowing nine earned runs with 21 strikeouts and eight walks.
Asked if he is noticing opposing hitters making changes in their approach when facing him a second time, Painter said it is more on his pitch location more so.
“I think all the damage has been done on mistakes I have left over the plate. I need to work more east to west and switch the look up, I think if I do that, I’ll be in a better spot,” Painter said.
Looking to get more consistency from secondary pitches
Painter’s arsenal features an explosive fastball which grades out at 70 (scale goes to 80) to go along with a slider which grades out as his second-best pitch (60). Statcast identifies his slider as a cutter, but Painter confirmed it is just a different variation of his slider. His changeup (55) and curveball (50) round out his four-pitch mix.
While the fastball is electric, Painter needs to hone his secondary pitches more in order to be effective against big league hitters. His slider has been inconsistent at times.
That blister prohibited Painter to throw his changeup which is a solid pitch when he can use it. He did not throw any in his two worst starts with the IronPigs appearing to correlate with his success on the mound. His curveball has true 12-6 movement and has shown flashes of being a solid pitch. If he can mix in the three pitches to compliment his fastball, he will be in fantastic shape moving forward.
Poise and adapting
Despite being just 22, Painter’s poise on the mound and his ability to identify what he needs to work on from start to start has been evident. One of the most telling indicators of his ability to evolve was his start against Worcester on June 15 throwing five scoreless innings allowing just one hit, two walks and striking out six. It was the first time this season that Painter faced the same team in back-to-back starts and also on four days rest.
In his most recent start against Rochester, Painter was not as crisp as he was in his dominant outing against Worcester, but did only allow two earned runs giving the IronPigs a chance to win. Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, Painter threw a season-high 89 pitches, a good sign that he is starting to get stretched out as the Phillies slowly work their prized prospect back from Tommy John.
With the way the organization has methodically increased his pitch count and innings limit each start, it does not seem like Painter is getting fast tracked to the bigs just because of his prospect status. He will need to earn the call up barring any injuries to the current Phillies’ starting rotation.
Could it be in that “July-ish” time frame? It remains to be seen.
It would not be surprising that Painter stays down in Triple-A continuing to improve if the Phillies rotation remains healthy aside from missing Aaron Nola and pitching as well as it is leading into the All-Star break which is July 14-17. After all, the rotation enters the Houston series with the fifth-best ERA at 3.45. If Painter can take a next step in his development, he could be a weapon for the Phillies in the second half of the season.
“I think the poise is very good,” Rob Thomson told media before Sunday’s game. “The composure is very good. If he stays healthy and he’s pitching well, then he deserves to be here.”
Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
